As the stock market sees increased rotation into and out of the tech sector, Jim Cramer told his Mad Money viewers Tuesday that he couldn't blame anyone looking for more "steady-Eddy" companies.
So Cramer did his "Off the Charts" segment of the show with Tim Collins, a technical analyst and contributor to RealMoney.com. They reviewed the charts of Eli Lilly (LLY) , a huge pharmaceutical maker.
Starting with a daily chart of Lilly, Collins acknowledged that the stock has been seesawing lately, trading at $84 in July, dropping to $77 in August, and back in September to $84. According to Collins, however, that fits with a larger pattern.
Since the August selloff, the stock has recovered slowly, developing a floor of support. Collins points out that every time Lilly has come near the floor, it's bounced back quickly. In addition, volume in Lilly stock has been rising. That's a key signal, since moving higher on increasing volume suggests more serious interest in the stock.
Lilly's on balance volume line, at the bottom of the chart, has held above its 13-day moving average, which shows that big institutions are buying the stock and signals to Collins that the stock could have more room to run.
When Lilly rallied sharply in June, the readings on this indicator were very strong, according to Collins. Back then, the stock peaked at $84.25. Since then it's tried and failed -- so far -- to break through that level, making it a new ceiling of resistance for now.
After Lilly failed to break out to new highs above $84.25, the stock's On Balance Volume line retreated back below its 13-day moving average. So the pattern in the past has been that the stock rises sharply, the move peters out, and big institutions decide to sell, pushing the on-balance volume lower.
Collins says that pattern is broken now because Lilly finally managed to break out above its ceiling at $84.25 on Monday. Even after Tuesday's pullback, it's still holding very close to that level. Instead of getting hit by profit taking, buying has continued, pushing on-balance volume higher.
Collins says Lilly has two very clear floors of support underneath it, one at $84.25, and one at $82.75. And because the stock recently started hitting new all-time highs, it has no real ceiling of resistance. So Collins thinks it could be smooth sailing to the upside here.
Looking at Lilly's longer-term weekly chart, we see a W pattern, a classic bullish pattern that often predicts higher stock prices.
The full stochastic oscillator, at the bottom of the chart, just made a bullish crossover -- where the black line goes above the red one. In the past, these crossovers occurred from lower levels, when Lilly was closer to its floor of support. This time the crossover is occurring with the stock only a few cents away from its long-term ceiling of resistance.
This suggests to Collins that if Eli Lilly can break out above $85 -- up less than a dollar from its current level -- that strength could propel the stock much higher. If Lilly goes above $85, he predicts it can quickly move into the $90 to $92 area before the end of the year, with the stock possibly hitting $100 by Memorial Day.
If the stock can't break out above $85, Collins says you'll need to wait for the stock to pull back and then do some buying once it's closer to its floor of support around $77 to $79. As long as that level holds, he thinks Lilly's stock will be just fine.
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