- Copper's recent highs are unsustainable at this stage in the metal's cycle and prices are expected to fall roughly 10% from still-elevated current levels to $2.60-2.70/lb in the fourth quarter.
- Aluminium was the only major base metal able to resist sentiment headwinds.
- Zinc has pulled back, but prices are expected to rise 7% from current levels to average $1.50/lb through 2018-19.
- Inflation-adjusted interest rate expectations have steadily fallen to a year low of 33 bps from a recent high of 64 bps in early July.
- Despite a 50% surge from their June lows, iron-ore prices have already fallen more than 6% from recent highs and met coal is expected to follow.
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