Barclays analyst Brian Johnson said on Wednesday that he believes Tesla Inc. (TSLA) shares are overvalued, and the largest driver of their valuation is hopes of dream scenarios.
He reiterated an underperform rating.
Then he raised his price target.
While Johnson's new $210 price target is still below the company's current $360.72, it is inching up from Barclays' previous $165 a share.
"We are still refining our "ROT (return on tweet)" analysis as the ultimate valuation tool," Johnson wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday.
The most realistic scenario, the report concludes, implies Tesla is highly overvalued. "Under our revised methodology, we see our 'baseline auto' scenario as the most likely end-scenario. It assumes in 5 yrs Tesla will have 840k units of volume while applying a solid 25x PE multiple (providing credit for future growth) and discounting back. That's solid growth! That said, the PV in this scenario is only $145/share - well below Tesla's current price."
So why are other analysts so much higher with their estimates and outlook for the firm?
Johnson calls the phenomenon the 'blue pill'/uber-bull scenario." In that projection, Tesla's sales eventually rise to 2 million vehicles per year, "while also sporting a 45 to 60 PE multiple to reflect optimism around future opportunities - leading to a price of about $1,400-1,800 per share."
The analyst concluded that several possible scenarios could play out for Tesla over the next several years, including these: