It's unlikely that any central-bank jawboning will change the dollar's direction. Instead, I see jawboning as merely a method of controlling the decline's pace.
Or, to put it in Floyd Mayweather/Conor McGregor terms, don't look for the dollar to be knocked out this fall, just knocked down and then get back up again. I doubt there will ever be a knockout, just a steady decline to a more suitable EUR/USD level.
I see 1.2500 EUR/USD doable by the Sept. 30, with 1.3000 achievable by 2017's end. This is a core belief that I've been espousing since 2017 began (a time when most investment houses were calling for the dollar to rally to 1.0000 to the euro).
Sure, the EUR/USD has already moved to 1.1920 from 1.0450 over the past eight months, but moves of this magnitude are par for the course for this trade. Chart watchers only need to expand the time series they look at to see the awesome moves that the euro can attain from here.
Meanwhile, the government has work to do to keep the dollar safe.
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