If you think Tuesday's earnings release is just another earnings call, think again. Under Armour is in "make-or-break mode" from a technical standpoint right now.
And that could actually bode well for investors considering just how low expectations are set for the second quarter Wall Street is expecting a second-quarter loss of 6 cents a share, on average. Revenue is expected to hit $1.08 billion, an 8% growth rate (UA management had already been forecasting a mid-teen percentage increase in the second half).
The commentary from analysts is bleak.
Wells Fargo points to a "slew of negative athletic/sporting goods data points."
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Jefferies says Under Armour's second-quarter earnings "shouldn't be great."
Needham expects "lackluster" results.
For Under Armour investors, all that means is that any positive earnings surprises could unload some big upside potential for shares this summer. And, critically, that crowded negative sentiment in UA's earnings comes at a time when shares are testing a critical price level.
Here's the chart:
It's been pretty hard to miss the downside move in Under Armour year to date. Since the calendar flipped to January, shares have shed about 28% of their market value, underperforming the rest of the broad market by almost 40%.