Here are Doug Kass' top thoughts on some of the biggest stories of the week.
My Takeaways and Observations
"Beware of false prophets, which come to you in sheep's clothing, but inwardly they are ravening wolves."-- Matthew 7:15-20
In the Church of What Is Working NowLet me make an important observation/opinion at midday.
Indeed, the ursine crowd is ridiculed and traders/investors are chasing price as they worship at the altar of momentum.
The last time there was such a universality of bullish opinion that I can remember was in late 1999/early 2000 and in the Summer of 2007.
While I don't think it ends anywhere as badly -- reward versus risk and upside versus downside is nearly never discussed.
Instead, blanket and often fictional statements and glittering generalities (e.g. earnings are great) are the mainstay of their discussions.
The machines, algos and momentum traders (individual and institutional) rules the day, but this ends very badly (though there is no way of knowing the timing).
And when it does, as was the case in the 2008-09 period, the talking heads will likely have forgotten what they are saying today.
My Diary is not an advice column.
But my strong advice is to look at every investment and trade you have on and determine upside/downside in an objective and unemotional manner.
Doug Kass shares his views every day on RealMoneyPro. Click here for a real-time look at his insights and musings. This week he blogged on:
- How biotech is having sharp reversals
- How crude is surging
Click here for information on RealMoney, where you can see all the blogs, including Doug Kass'--and reader comments--in real time.
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