Many believe that nothing says summer fun more than grabbing your Harley for a cool ride, or a cool investment opportunity. However, these are two very different questions. While it may be always a good time for a ride, it's not always a good time to invest capital. Let's use our objective DSE (decision support engine) to explore the differences between good and bad times to invest in in Harley-Davidson (HOG) .
Nearly a year ago, DSE's analysis allowed us to warn on these pages that July 2016 was not the time to deploy capital in Harley-Davidson. Further, as you can review here, the forecast concluded that the $55 +/-$3 zone should be used to exit any further strength, and prepare for a slide into the low $40s. HOG only slid to the high $40s, before rising to the low $60s, but has since reversed again in more dynamic fashion.
Notice it peaked right in between DSE's two pink ovals, which members of our live-market Trading Room and DSE Alerts services have been using to trade against ever since (click here for a 10-day free trial of our premium memberships). Now, the deeper forecast has been triggered, as DSE members were notified of earlier this week, with $30 +/-$4 as the support zone that should be probed in the coming five to 13 months.
The chart below is the updated version of the exact one from a year ago, and shows the newest trigger causing an even deeper price projection. First of all, the stochastics peaked at the 90% extreme overbought threshold, putting HOG on an initial sell signal. Then, the test of $62 was strongly rejected by the upper two-standard deviation band (olive/gold line), which controls 95% of normality. Individually, these are bright red warning flags, and combined, raises confidence in their potential voracity.