Doug Kass shares his views every day on RealMoneyPro. Click here for a real-time look at his insights and musings.
Shooting a Hole in the Core Bullish Argument of Growth
-- Mickey Mantle
From my perch here some of the principal keys (not all inclusive (!)) I pay attention to in determining whether a "talking head" in the business media should be listened to:
* They spend a limited time being a "talking head"
* They spend most of their time being analysts (fundamental, technical, quantitative, etc.)
* Strength of analysis (technical, fundamental, quantitative or other)
* Lack of hubris
* They use qualifying terms and words like "could," "may," "might" etc. in their discussion of investment ideas -- because, as I have written, the only certainty is the lack of certainty
* Admission when they are wrong (i.e., not "carpet sweepers" who use selective disclosure to make you believe they have the investment business beaten)
* Admission that they "don't know" the answer to every question
* They are not emotional
* They are willing to go against the trend/herd (in buying and selling) when deemed appropriate by their methodology
* They are transparent -- win, lose or draw
* Recognition of probabilities of fundamental/technical outcomes and price outcomes (and not establishing an absolute target)
* Recognition that very short-term market calls are absurd and nothing more than guesses
* They provide good returns through alpha (selection) and not by leverage
* A proven record of investment performance over a number of market cycles
* They "eat their own (investment) cooking" -- that is, they put their money where their mouth is
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