Tractor Supply's (TSCO) steep slide from its 2017 peak appears to have reached the point of exhaustion. After dropping more than 35% since the Jan. 17 high, the stock is shaping up as a very low-risk buy for patient bulls. Friday's gain of more than 3% may prove to be the initial stage of a healthy rebound.
After a steady drift lower while under heavy pressure from its 50-day moving average, TSCO collapsed on April 12. A disappointing first-quarter update sent shares over 8% lower on very heavy trade. By the end of the month, the stock began to stabilize near major support at its 2016 low, but investors remained skittish. Once this supply zone gave way, another huge down leg began.
TSCO began to base in late May, but the process has continued to be frustrating. The stock went on to make a new monthly low in June and again in July. In fact, TSCO has put in a lower monthly low every month this year. This downtrend could give way to a powerful rebound.
In the near term, TSCO investors, especially those focused on dividend growth, should view the stock a low-risk buy near current levels. On the upside, a key hurdle would be a close back above $56.00, the level of its 50-day moving average. On the downside, a drop back below $49.00 would indicate more pain is ahead.
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