I noticed something interesting looking over the past week of trading -- the Nasdaq Composite and technology stocks in particular had their first major multiday plunge of 2017 on June 9. I also noticed that as of last Thursday's close, the Nasdaq Composite's TRIN had been above 1.0 for five straight days. That hasn't happened since January 2016.
As a reminder, the TRIN, or "Trading Index," measures the relationship between the advance/decline line and up and down volume. As such, it's a measurement of what underlying stocks are doing.
Now, a high TRIN typically means that there's been a lot of selling underneath. But we've only seen 10 other instances since 2012 where the Nasdaq Composite's TRIN has gone at least five consecutive trading days over 1.0. And since we haven't seen it happen since 2016, those 10 other instances all occurred within a four-year period between 2012 and 2016, with nothing since then. That's how unusual this particular period has been.
I looked back at each of the prior instances of five days or more of a high TRIN and the one thing they all had in common was that not one of them turned out to be the Nasdaq Composite's near-term low. In every single instance -- even if the index rallied back for a while -- it always came back down.
For example, here's a look at the Nasdaq Composite from 2012:
The index's high TRIN during a July 2012 pullback (the red box at the left above) saw a nice rally -- but then a retest (the green arrow at left). The late August period was mostly sideways, but the TRIN was over 1.0 for six straight days (the red box in the center of the chart above). After that, the Nasdaq Comp enjoyed a fast 100-point rally (3%), but then fell 15% in a hurry. After that, the TRIN had a six-day streak over 1.0 in October (the red box at right), which preceded a few upside days followed by a renewed downside.