Sales expectations for the upcoming Model 3 are too low given likely high consumer interest, Pacific Crest analyst Brad Erickson said in a note on Tuesday. "If the car is perceived as awesome, already low second half 2017 buy-side expectations will actually fall. Under this scenario, we believe downside risk from significant production shortfall would likely be minimal."
Erickson has a $439 price target on Tesla, implying a 26% advance from Monday's closing price of $347.32 The analyst cautions though that high-end consumer demand for Tesla's cars are plateauing and that overall profitability is likely to "underwhelm."
Tesla will begin to deliver the Model 3 to customers on July 1. The electric car company plans to churn out 5,000 Model 3's per week before the end of this year, and 10,000 per week next year.
Shares of Tesla have surged more than 62% so far this year on expectations for a strong debut of the Model 3. The stock closed up 1.5% on Tuesday to $352.85.
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Editor's Pick: Originally published June 6.