You won't hear much from the Federal Reserve in the coming days as officials enter a blackout period ahead of their June meeting the following week. But it's not as though investors are clamoring for any new commentary on the central bank's position: The Fed is almost certain to hike rates no matter what happens.
The chances of a June rate hike have steadily risen in the past month since the Fed made the decision at its May meeting to leave rates unchanged. The steady drip-drip of Fedspeak has also showed more hawks than doves in recent weeks.
Even an off-the-mark U.S. jobs report for may couldn't dissuade investors from their conviction of an interest rate move in June. CME Group fed funds futures showed the chances of a 25-basis-point increase at the next meeting at 90% even after a miss on the May headline number and downward revisions to April and March.
May's jobs report does not support current market optimism and could give sellers some ammo, James "Rev Shark" Deporre argues over on our premium site for investors, Real Money. Get his insights with a free trial subscription.
"The market has it baked in and therefore at this point it seems maybe unexciting," Dan North, chief economist at Euler Hermes North America, said in a call. "The question is what happens after that. Are we going to get a third hike for the year?"
The Federal Open Market Committee, the decision-making arm of the Fed, is next set to meet June 13-14. That two-day meeting will culminate in an announcement on Wednesday afternoon, the release of fresh forecasts, and a press conference helmed by Fed Chair Janet Yellen.
The investigation into Russia's meddling into the U.S. election, and the Trump campaign's potential culpability, should continue to hold headlines in the coming week. That will likely come to a head on Thursday morning as former FBI head James Comey delivers his public testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee.
"Markets are aware of news reports that suggest he will state that President Trump asked him to stop aspects of the FBI's Russia investigation," TD Securities analysts wrote in a note. "As such, the risk is for a sizable risk-off move on unexpected testimony. Note that the Special Prosecutor may limit what Comey can say publicly."
Donald Trump fired Comey earlier in May while the FBI was investigating the Trump transition team's ties to Russia. News reports also indicated that Trump had asked Comey for his loyalty and requested he stop investigating his former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn.
Elsewhere on the economic calendar in the coming week, productivity and costs for the first quarter, factory orders for April, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for May will be released on Monday; the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for April on Tuesday; and weekly jobless claims during its normal slot on Thursday.
In earnings, Ascena Retail (ASNA) will report on Monday; Analogic (ALOG) , Ambarella (AMBA) , Conn's (CONN) , Dave & Buster's (PLAY) , Francesca's (FRAN) , Fred's (FRED) , G-III Apparel (GIII) , HD Supply Holdings (HDS) , Land's End (LE) and Michaels (MIK) on Tuesday; Brown-Forman (BF.A) , Dollarama (DOL) and Verint Systems (VRNT) on Wednesday; and JM Smucker (SJM) , Vail Resorts (MTN) and Verifone Systems (PAY) on Thursday.
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