ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach $50 billion for the month of May, up 1.5 percent from a year ago.

Higher average transaction prices combined with higher sales volumes due to one more selling day will result in an expected increase of $758 million in revenue for automakers versus May 2016. Additionally, incentive spending is projected to increase 9.5 percent.

"The growth in transaction prices represents a richer mix of cars and light trucks being sold across the industry," said Eric Lyman, ALG's Chief Industry Analyst. "This will be critical for automakers as they seek to protect revenue and profits as we start to see sales volumes cool off."

ALG estimates the average transaction price (ATP) for a new light vehicle was $32,900 in May, up 1.2 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit grew by $297 to $3,435. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP is expected to be 10.4 percent, up from 9.7 percent a year ago.

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer
 

May. 2017Forecast
 

May. 2016
 

Apr. 2017
 

Percent Changevs.May. 2016
 

Percent Changevs.Apr. 2017
BMW (BMW, Mini)   $52,200   $51,000   $52,500   2.4%   -0.6%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)   $62,400   $57,700   $61,700   8.1%   1.1%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)   $33,300   $32,800   $33,300   1.5%   0.0%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)   $36,100   $35,000   $36,100   3.1%   0.0%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)   $36,700   $36,800   $37,000   -0.3%   -0.8%
Honda (Acura, Honda)   $27,600   $27,300   $27,400   1.1%   0.7%
Hyundai   $22,700   $23,800   $22,800   -4.6%   -0.4%
Kia   $22,900   $22,900   $22,900   0.0%   0.0%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)   $27,700   $27,200   $27,700   1.8%   0.0%
Subaru   $27,900   $27,800   $28,000   0.4%   -0.4%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)   $31,400   $31,300   $31,400   0.3%   0.0%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)   $34,100   $34,100   $34,500   0.0%   -1.2%

Industry
 

$32,900
 

$32,500
 

$33,000
 

1.2%
 

-0.3%
         

Incentive per Unit Spending

Manufacturer
 

May. 2017Forecast
 

May. 2016
 

Apr. 2017
 

Percent Changevs.May. 2016
 

Percent Changevs.Apr. 2017
BMW (BMW, Mini)   $4,550   $5,724   $4,424   -20.5%   2.8%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)   $4,511   $4,737   $4,557   -4.8%   -1.0%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)   $4,250   $4,115   $4,359   3.3%   -2.5%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)   $4,090   $3,596   $4,114   13.7%   -0.6%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)   $4,255   $4,057   $4,238   4.9%   0.4%
Honda (Acura, Honda)   $1,833   $1,756   $1,809   4.4%   1.3%
Hyundai   $3,166   $2,104   $3,135   50.5%   1.0%
Kia   $3,240   $2,734   $3,247   18.5%   -0.2%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)   $3,867   $3,242   $3,903   19.3%   -0.9%
Subaru   $969   $610   $957   58.9%   1.3%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)   $2,323   $2,176   $2,346   6.8%   -1.0%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)   $4,075   $3,605   $4,008   13.0%   1.7%

Industry
 

$3,435
 

$3,138
 

$3,443
 

9.5%
 

-0.2%
         

Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP

Manufacturer
 

May. 2017Forecast
 

May. 2016
 

Apr. 2017
 

Percent Changevs.May. 2016
 

Percent Changevs.Apr. 2017
BMW (BMW, Mini)   8.7%   11.2%   8.4%   -22.3%   3.4%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)   7.2%   8.2%   7.4%   -12.0%   -2.1%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)   12.8%   12.5%   13.1%   1.7%   -2.5%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)   11.3%   10.3%   11.4%   10.3%   -0.6%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)   11.6%   11.0%   11.5%   5.2%   1.2%
Honda (Acura, Honda)   6.6%   6.4%   6.6%   3.2%   0.6%
Hyundai   13.9%   8.8%   13.7%   57.8%   1.4%
Kia   14.1%   11.9%   14.2%   18.5%   -0.2%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)   14.0%   11.9%   14.1%   17.1%   -0.9%
Subaru   3.5%   2.2%   3.4%   58.4%   1.7%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)   7.4%   7.0%   7.5%   6.4%   -1.0%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)   11.9%   10.6%   11.6%   13.0%   2.9%

Industry
 

10.4%
 

9.7%
 

10.4%
 

8.1%
 

0.1%
         

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.

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