Fossil (FOSL) could become just that, hints one Wall Street analyst.
"An event horizon, commonly associated with black holes, is the point of no return where time stands still and takes another dimension. We wonder if we've reached this tipping point [with Fossil] following the 10-q release," wrote Macquarie Capital analyst Laurent Vasilescu on Monday about the struggling watchmaker. The analyst voiced concerns about Fossil being able to hold onto key license agreements, notably one with Michael Kors (KORS) that represents 22.7% of its annual sales. If Fossil doesn't meet certain sales requirements in 2018, Michael Kors could terminate the license agreement in 2019.
Vasilescu also called out Fossil's dwindling cash pile as a major worry.
To be sure, Fossil is in a bad place right now.
The company is fresh off reporting a net loss of $1 a share for the period ended April 1, steeper than the loss of 27 cents a share analysts surveyed at Factset expected. Revenue tallied $581.8 million, lower than Wall Street's estimates for $591 million.
Shares of Fossil crashed 23.2% last week following the release.
In America, sales plunged 17%, while watch sales dropped 9%, leather items fell 21% and jewelry slipped 12%. In its retail business, same-store sales fell 11%.
Although Fossil badly missed estimates, CEO Kosta Kartsotis said on a company earnings call that its results were "in line with our expectations" and that the downturn in the retail industry, including its own move to close 40 stores since the year-ago period, was to blame for the weak results. Not everyone agreed with the CEO's assessment, however.
"Results were disappointing with top line weakness and margin deterioration driving an earnings miss. With soft demand across categories, geographies, and channels, there is no silver lining to results," wrote Jefferies analyst Randal Konick.
For the second quarter, Fossil predicts it will incur a net loss of between 83 cents and $1 a share and for the full year, it expects a loss in the range of 30 cents to 40 cents a share. The company anticipates that its revenue will decline 8 percent to 11.5 percent in the second quarter and 1.5 percent to 6 percent for the full year.
"We were sticker-shocked by the magnitude of the second quarter guide," said Vasilescu added at the time.