Have the markets gotten too complacent? That was the question Jim Cramer pondered with his Mad Money viewers Tuesday. Cramer said that what looks like complacency may be a "one foot out the door" mentality that's actually helping to stabilize the stock market.
If you look at the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) , the so-called "fear gauge" for stocks, it signals that all is well. Cramer noted that the while the VIX is no longer a perfect measure of those betting against the market, it does still matter.
What the VIX shows are the many positives in the market. The economy is healthy and the Federal Reserve is taking its time raising interest rates. Add to that a strengthening global economy and stable oil prices and it's easy to see why investors aren't fearing an imminent market collapse.
That's not to say that everything is perfect. In fact, a market correction would be perfectly warranted at these levels, Cramer noted. That's why he recommends that investors keep some cash on the sidelines to be ready for when that unexpected event seemingly comes out of nowhere. And that's probably why so many hedge fund managers are already short the market, just waiting for that day to come.
Meanwhile, over on Real Money, Jim Cramer takes a closer look at why this long-anticipated big market decline has been so elusive. Get more on his insights with a free trial subscription to Real Money.
Off the Charts: Oil
In the "Off The Charts" segment, Cramer checked in with colleague Carley Garner over the direction of crude oil prices. Garner predicted in January that oil would be stuck in the $40 to $50 a barrel range, a prediction that has held thus far.
Starting with a daily chart of WTI Crude, Garner noted that both the relative strength and the Williams oscillators are in oversold territory. But she also noted that crude's next levels of support are at $43 and $40 a barrel, meaning a little more weakness is likely. The weekly chart of WTI Crude also suggested that there is a bit more downside ahead before the inevitable rebound.
Garner then looked at the Commitments of Traders report, which measures the long and short positions of large and small speculators and commercial hedging activity. According to the COT report, the big boys continue to be betting big on a rally in crude.
But Garner also turned to historical patterns, noting that oil typically trades sideways during the summer, so a rally is not likely without some fundamental strength. She still forecasted a rally in oil, but not before the commodity drifts still lower over the coming days and weeks.
Executive Decision: Allergan
For his "Executive Decision" segment, Cramer sat down with Brent Saunders, chairman, president and CEO of Allergan (AGN) , an Action Alerts PLUS holding that just posted a five-cents-a-share earnings beat with raised full-year guidance.
Saunders addressed concerns about the quarter by saying that cash flows were lighter this quarter due to one-time charges related to recent acquisitions. The first quarter is also their lightest sales quarter of the year, which means that gross margins will only improve from here.
Saunders confirmed that Allergan has six drugs in phase III development with one or two expected to file for approval by the end of 2017. The company also has new treatments for depression and eye diseases in the pipeline.
Aesthetics continues to be a big driver for Allergen, with franchises including Botox, Juvederm and Kybella all showing strong growth.
When asked how his company is getting the word out to the selfie generation about their aesthetics products, Saunders said that Allergen advertises on the national level and doctors and clinics advertise at the local level.
Cramer remained bullish on Allergan.
Don't Underestimate Travel
It sure is tough to be a short-seller, Cramer told viewers, especially if you're short the travel and leisure stocks.
Shorting travel seemed like a safe bet after Trump took office and immediately issued travel bans. This thesis was only made stronger after United Continental (UAL) was seen dragging passengers off their planes.
But then the travel bans were halted by the courts and the economy improved and the shorts are now on the wrong side of the trade. Today Marriott (MAR) delivered a top- and bottom-line beat, sending shares up 6.3%, and United defied the odds and also reported strong earnings that boosted shares 4.7%.
When even one of the biggest corporate villain of the year is rallying, that's saying something, Cramer noted.
Travel is experiential, Cramer concluded, and that makes it exactly right for this market.
Executive Decision: XPO Logistics
In his second "Executive Decision" segment, Cramer sat down with Brad Jacobs, chairman and CEO of XPO Logistics (XPO) , a stock that's up 28% for 2017 thanks in part to a 15-cents-a-share earnings beat last quarter.
Jacobs said that if you've ever gotten an appliance or exercise equipment delivered to your home, XPO probably hand a hand in it. His company is also a leader in intermodal transportation, signing a $500 million contract for intermodal this quarter.
XPO is also well positioned in Europe, Jacobs said, and sales continue to do well in that region.
Technology is at the heart of XPO, Jacobs added, saying that XPO has invested $425 million into tech that helps transmit useful information both internally and to customers. XPO currently employs 1,600 IT professionals.
Cramer called XPO a "remarkable" story.
In the Lightning Round, Cramer was bullish on Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) , Western Digital (WDC) , Kohl's (KSS) , MaxLinear (MXL) , NVIDIA (NVDA) , Alibaba (BABA) , Universal Display (OLED) , NCR Corp (NCR) , Sprint (S) , T-Mobile US (TMUS) and ALLETE (ALE) .
Cramer and the AAP team say they expect Apple (AAPL) rumors to heat up in the next couple of weeks, perhaps adding to the intrigue as investors start to appreciate the company's long-term potential outside of just iPhone sales. Find out what they are telling their investment club members; get a free trial subscription to Action Alerts PLUS.
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