Doug Kass shares his views every day on RealMoneyPro. Click here for a real-time look at his insights and musings.
The 'Market Top' Bell Rings Twice
Originally published May 3 at 10:13 a.m. EST
- First Boca Biff Goes "All In"
- Now the Approval and Introduction of 4x Leveraged ETFs
After all, history suggests so!
- The sponsor has limited capital.
- The sponsor has zero experience in operating commodity pools.
- The funds are not registered; there is no protection under the 1940 Act.
- The sponsor is "leanly staffed" and the success of the product depends on their ability to implement its strategies.
- The sponsor has numerous potential conflicts of interest, including (but not restricted to) trading in their own accounts.
My Trading Week at a Glance
Originally published May 5 at 11:14 a.m. EST
ADP April Jobs Number Down From March
Originally published May 3 at 9:06 a.m. EST
The main reason for the slowdown relative to March was in the goods-producing sector, which saw a spike all winter because of weather. In April, this area of the labor market added 12,000 jobs vs. 79,000 in March, with construction trimming 2,000 jobs after an increase of 153,000 in the mild winter from January thru March. Manufacturing added 11,000s after a rise of 31,000 in March. The natural resource sector, helped by the rising rig counts, added 3,000 jobs after a gain of 5,000 last month.
On the services side, job growth totaled 165,000 vs. 176,000 in March, and that's pretty much in line with the six-month average of 178,000. Professional/business services, education/health services and leisure and hospitality led the gains in this large portion of the U.S. labor force. Retail jobs continue to be shed in the new online/mobile phone world we live in.
Bottom line, mild weather helped to goose job creation in the first three months of the year in construction and manufacturing while services sector job creation was no different than the recent trend. Thus, the April slowdown was some giveback on the goods-producing side. That should continue. Also, after seeing just a 0.7% GDP print in the first quarter at the same time monthly job gains averaged 257,000 means that productivity was poor again and we'll see that official figure tomorrow.
Hopes are high for a second-quarter growth rebound, but it won't come from the consumer side with the purchase of new vehicles. The estimate for private-sector job gains on Friday is 190,000 after the big miss of 89,000 in March.