ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries, will reach 1,440,200 units in April, down 3.9 percent from a year ago and nearly flat on a selling day adjusted basis at -0.2 percent.

This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17.1 million units for the month, down 1.9 percent from a 17.4 million-unit SAAR a year ago. Excluding fleet sales, U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks are expected to decline 4.8 percent with 1,190,657 units and down on a selling day adjusted basis at -1.2 percent .

"Despite higher incentives and nearly flat sales (on a daily sales rate basis), there is positivity in the April sales numbers," said Eric Lyman, chief industry analyst for ALG. "Historical ALG data indicate Easter weekend sales are typically 2 percent lower than average, putting April 2017 at a disadvantage since the holiday fell in March last year. Also, fleet deliveries continue to drop on a year over year basis, indicating that retail demand is still driving sales in 2017."

Incentive spending by automakers may average an estimated $3,465 per vehicle in April, up 13.9 percent from a year ago, and down 2.5 percent from March 2017.

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment is at 98.0 this month up from 96.9 in March, which indicates continued confidence in the health of the U.S. economy. Other key factors for positive economic conditions include the March unemployment rate, which came in at 4.5 percent, combined with a favorable average gas price of $2.40 recorded for this current week.

Other key findings for April:
  • Registration mix is expected to be 82.7 percent retail sales and 17.3 percent fleet versus 83.5 percent retail and 16.5 percent fleet last April.
  • Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private-party transactions, may reach 3,318,537, down 0.8 percent from April 2016.

Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume:

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer
     

April 2017

Forecast
     

April 2016
     

% Change vs.

April 2016
     

YoY % Change

(Daily Selling

Rate)
BMW       29,500       29,826       -1.1 %       2.7 %
Daimler       32,500       32,291       0.6 %       4.5 %
FCA       176,000       192,685       -8.7 %       -5.1 %
Ford       212,000       229,739       -7.7 %       -4.2 %
GM       260,000       259,557       0.2 %       4.0 %
Honda       145,000       148,829       -2.6 %       1.2 %
Hyundai       62,000       62,213       -0.3 %       3.5 %
Kia       49,000       56,508       -13.3 %       -10.0 %
Nissan       122,000       123,861       -1.5 %       2.3 %
Subaru       52,500       50,380       4.2 %       8.2 %
Toyota       197,000       211,125       -6.7 %       -3.1 %
Volkswagen Group       49,500       50,522       -2.0 %       1.7 %

Industry
     

1,440,200
     

1,498,965
     

-3.9

%
     

-0.2

%
                       
 

Total Market Share

Manufacturer
     

April 2017

Forecast
      April 2016       March 2017
BMW       2.0 %       2.0 %       2.3 %
Daimler       2.3 %       2.2 %       2.1 %
FCA       12.2 %       12.9 %       12.3 %
Ford       14.7 %       15.3 %       15.1 %
GM       18.1 %       17.3 %       16.5 %
Honda       10.1 %       9.9 %       8.8 %
Hyundai       4.3 %       4.2 %       4.3 %
Kia       3.4 %       3.8 %       3.2 %
Nissan       8.5 %       8.3 %       10.9 %
Subaru       3.6 %       3.4 %       3.5 %
Toyota       13.7 %       14.1 %       13.8 %
Volkswagen Group       3.4 %       3.4 %       3.3 %
                 
 

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer
     

April 2017

Forecast
     

April 2016
     

YoY %

Change
     

YoY %

Change

(Daily Selling

Rate)
BMW       28,560       29,059       -1.7 %       2.1 %
Daimler       30,392       30,138       0.8 %       4.7 %
FCA       146,000       153,150       -4.7 %       -1.0 %
Ford       142,000       167,744       -15.3 %       -12.1 %
GM       200,000       204,178       -2.0 %       1.7 %
Honda       143,609       146,237       -1.8 %       2.0 %
Hyundai       50,607       52,997       -4.5 %       -0.8 %
Kia       40,205       46,894       -14.3 %       -11.0 %
Nissan       91,499       94,389       -3.1 %       0.7 %
Subaru       49,245       47,666       3.3 %       7.3 %
Toyota       174,203       184,208       -5.4 %       -1.8 %
Volkswagen Group       46,648       47,608       -2.0 %       1.8 %

Industry
     

1,190,657
     

1,251,071
     

-4.8

%
     

-1.2

%
                       
 

Incentive Spending
Manufacturer      

Incentive

per Unit

Apr 2017

Forecast
     

Incentive

per Unit

Apr 2016
     

Incentive

per Unit

Mar 2017
     

Incentive

per Unit

% Change vs.

Apr 2016
     

Incentive

per Unit

% Change vs.

Mar 2017
     

Total

Spending

Apr 2017

Forecast
BMW       $ 4,451       $ 5,290       $ 4,227       -15.9 %       5.3 %       $ 130,850,555
Daimler       $ 4,670       $ 4,000       $ 4,767       16.8 %       -2.0 %       $ 151,787,792
FCA       $ 4,482       $ 3,982       $ 4,583       12.6 %       -2.2 %       $ 779,906,193
Ford       $ 3,775       $ 3,514       $ 3,809       7.4 %       -0.9 %       $ 800,201,090
GM       $ 4,717       $ 4,012       $ 4,850       17.6 %       -2.7 %       $ 1,226,424,730
Honda       $ 1,863       $ 1,604       $ 1,853       16.2 %       0.6 %       $ 270,175,905
Hyundai       $ 2,580       $ 2,008       $ 2,591       28.5 %       -0.4 %       $ 159,933,159
Kia       $ 2,978       $ 2,722       $ 3,004       9.4 %       -0.9 %       $ 145,923,492
Nissan       $ 3,895       $ 3,232       $ 4,036       20.5 %       -3.5 %       $ 475,183,155
Subaru       $ 864       $ 595       $ 907       45.2 %       -4.8 %       $ 45,349,377
Toyota       $ 2,311       $ 1,996       $ 2,430       15.8 %       -4.9 %       $ 455,310,295
Volkswagen Group       $ 3,922       $ 3,443       $ 3,995       13.9 %       -1.8 %       $ 193,330,272

Industry
     

$

3,465
     

$

3,041
     

$

3,556
     

13.9

%
     

-2.5

%
     

$

4,968,169,020
                                   

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.

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