Doug Kass shares his views every day on RealMoneyPro. Click here for a real-time look at his insights and musings.
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
Originally published April 25 at 3:17 p.m. EST
* Biotech ( Allergan ( AGN - Get Report) , Celgene ( CELG - Get Report) and Gilead Sciences ( GILD - Get Report) )
* Chipotle Mexican Grill ( CMG - Get Report) continues as a star.
What Troubles Me and What Should Trouble You
Originally published April 24 at 12:31 p.m. EST
Rather, it is a reflection of the realities, concerns and uncertainties that investors face over the next 1-2 years.
Tuesday's opening missive will discuss the threat of central banks' normalizing interest rates in a world heavily laden with debt.
While the Perma Bulls will call my concerns a " Wall of Worry," I believe that is far too glib and a non rigorous response to serious issues.
In the past 12 months I have consistently and continuously written that never in my investment career have their been so many market and economic outcomes--many of which may be interpreted as market unfriendly. (This is something my pal and legendary brokerage executive and investor Ira Harris mentioned to me a few years ago).
Yet, many are self-confident--and use as their baseline expectation that we will see a "hockey stick" of nominal GDP growth and U.S. corporate profit growth in the next two years coupled with some further expansion in price earnings multiples.
I am deeply skeptical of that outcome. The lack of political, geopolitical, economic and market certainty of outcome helps to explain, in part, why I have shorted my investment horizons ( "Shorten Your Investment Horizons and Hang Tight") and reduced the size of my trading and investment positions. I recognize this eight year global bull market will not die easily thanks, in part to a combination of animal spirits (they call them animal spirits because animals are dumber than humans!) and central bankers (who often act like animals)!
I remain honest in view and uncertain and lacking of confidence of direction over the near term. At the same time I remain negative over the intermediate term -- in which downside risk is likely at least 3:1 versus upside reward.