How Much Do Investors Stand to Gain if Barry Diller's IAC Is Broken Up?

Barry Diller's IACInteractiveCorp. (IAC)   could be have more than 20% upside, according to Jefferies analyst Brian Fitzgerald. The stock finished the day up about 0.45% to $75.39 early Tuesday afternoon, well below Fitzgerald's target of $92 per share, which he based on a sum-of-its parts valuation.

Diller -- who made his name at traditional media groups like Paramount (before it was part of Viacom (VIAB) ) and Fox (FOXA)  , and also ran legacy digital commerce brands such as QVC (QVCA) and Expedia (EXPE) -- has assembled a group of online properties that benefits from its appeal to millennials.

IAC spun off digital dating conglomerate Match (MTCH) , parent of Tinder, in 2015, but the company still owns 210 million shares worth about $3.7 billion based on Tuesday's price of about $17.50. The stake would be worth more than $5 billion at Fitzgerald's target of $21 per share.

"Industry tailwinds are in Match's favor (1 in 3 dates now begins online)," Fitzgerald wrote of the stake. Jefferies expects Tinder's paid monthly clientele to rise from 2.2 million at the end of this year to 3.1 million next year.

HomeAdvisor, which is worth more than $2 billion at the high end of Fitzgerald's valuation range, provides listings of contractors and other domestic businesses. Like Match, Fitzgerald suggests that it skews to a younger generation. "We also note that millennial homeowners represent an attractive tailwind, with homeowners aged 18-34 (about two times) more likely to hire a pro online vs. homeowners 50+," Fitzgerald wrote.

IAC's video group, which includes Vimeo, CollegeHumor, Daily Burn and IAC Films, is worth as much as $2.2 billion, at the upper range of Fitzgerald's valuation. Fitzgerald describes Vimeo as "an intriguing asset that is not fully understood" and "a platform for high quality content distribution" that could expand its model. However, Vimeo operates in the super-competitve ecosystem of online video, which includes Alphabet's (GOOGL) YouTube, Netflix (NFLX) , Facebook (FB) , Amazon (AMZN) and others online powers. Carving out a new model against intense competition will be a challenge.

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IAC's publishing assets include Investopedia, Daily Beast, About.com and Dictionary.com, which Jefferies values collectively at $145 million. The company's web applications business is worth another $1 billion.

All together, the businesses are worth $9.6 billion at the high end of Fitzgerald's estimates, including his target price for the Match stake. The analyst set his target of $92 per share at the mid-point of his valuation range, which stretches from $72 to $111 per share.

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