In recent weeks, the "Trump trade" has fallen apart, with financial stocks hit the hardest. But if financial-related companies can show good loan growth, then investors may look to get back into companies like Bank of America (BAC) and others.
Bank stocks have underperformed the broader indices by nearly 7% since the fourth-quarter, Goldman Sachs analyst Richard Ramsden noted, despite the 24% run since the election. Worries about loan-growth, net interest margin and trading volumes have caused investors to reassess these stocks, but that seems likely to abate this quarter.
"Heading into EPS, Street expectations appear more reasonable to us and better margins and improved operating leverage should support higher prices (note we are above consensus on 12 of 22 banks, with only 3 misses)," Goldman Sachs wrote in a note ahead of earnings. "While loan growth has disappointed YTD, this is widely known; any thoughts on building backlogs will help. Lastly, any commentary about more aggressive capital return asks will likely be welcomed. In terms of 1Q, we are most constructive on RF, BAC, CFG and ZION and see misses from FITB, and FHN."
Loan growth has fallen nearly 350 basis points year-over-year Ramsden added, as concerns about commercial real estate and commercial and industrial loans have turned negative since the election.
In addition to loan growth and margins, investors will be interested to hear how the capital markets business is going.
Analysts surveyed by Yahoo! Finance expect the company to earn 35 a share on $21.6 billion in revenue for the period.
Over the past 12 months, shares of Bank of America have gained nearly 61% excluding dividends, compared to the near 11% gain in the S&P 500.
Here are five ETFs that may benefit if investors like Bank of America's first-quarter results.
iShares U.S. Financial Services ETF
The $1.4 billion iShares U.S. Financial Services ETF (IYG) has Bank of America make up 9.06% of its portfolio, charging investors an expense ratio of 0.43%.
Goldman Sachs's Ramsden, who has a buy rating and a $27 price target on BofA, believes the first-quarter will be aided by strong overall performance.
"We expect the combination of underappreciated rates sensitivity and a strong capital markets backdrop driven by corporate activity and a credit-heavy FICC mix to drive results higher vs. consensus for the quarter," the analyst wrote to investors.
Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund
The $22.86 billion Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) has Bank of America make up 8.14% of its portfolio, charging investors an expense ratio of 0.15%.
Renaissance Sector Research analyst Howard Mason noted that the company generated 2.2% net interest margin in 2016, noting CEO Brian Moynihan said non-interest bearing balances aren't impacting the company's profitability.
"While there is risk that customers will shift NIB balances to interest-earning instruments as rates back up, approximately one half of them at BAC are related to core transactional accounts in the consumer business and will be rate insensitive," Mason wrote to investors.
PowerShares KBW Bank Portfolio ETF
The $783.2 million PowerShares KBW Bank Portfolio ETF (KBWB) has Bank of America make up 8% of its portfolio, charging investors an expense ratio of 0.35%.
Credit Suisse analyst Susan Roth Katzke believes the company's asset sensitivity, organic loan growth and capital markets activity will help the company this quarter. Katzke has an outperform rating and a $27 price target on shares.
Vanguard Financials ETF
The $5.61 billion Vanguard Financials ETF (VFH) has Bank of America make up 6.77% of its portfolio, charging investors an expense ratio of 0.12%.
FIDELITY MSCI FINANCIALS INDEX ETF
The $814.3 million FIDELITY MSCI FINANCIALS INDEX ETF (FNCL) has Amazon make up 6.75% of its portfolio, charging investors an expense ratio of 0.08%.