Jim Cramer fills his blog on RealMoney every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:
- How jobs report affected the bond market
- How the trading algorithms reacted over Syria
Click here for information on RealMoney, where you can see all the blogs, including Jim Cramer's -- and reader comments -- in real time.
There have been so many bankruptcies in retail and so many store closings that this was the month where it really hit home.
Autos signaled the weakness, too.
It is incredible, as my friend and writing partner Matt Horween says, the bond market is rarely wrong, and it correctly nailed the slowing.
I continue to believe that the failure of the health care repeal/replace coupled with the double-digit decline in mall traffic directly created this market.
Yes, there were some lost days because of a freak late storm.
But just count the store closings and you will get this number right.
Oh, and it is time to fish or cut bait with ADP. We either favor it or the Labor Department.
Can't believe in both.
I know we think Syria should take precedence, but we live in an automated world, and if the bonds are screaming and rates are coming down--for whatever reason-- then stocks will slide.
And the opposite?
It's true, too.
It doesn't matter what causes the bond market to move--war, foreign buying, whatever. The algorithms play no favorites. Bank stocks go down when rates go lower, and industrials and materials plummet when rates go lower because the algos presume two things:
- Rates lower means no Fed hikes and
- Rates lower means weaker worldwide economy.
They don't adjust for Syria.
So be aware that when the strike first occurred and the S&P 500 futures were down 19 ticks, that was because the bonds were roaring and rates were plummeting.
But as rates inched back up the futures came back up, to the point that futures were benignly off as rates were almost unchanged.
So, keep one eye--your best eye--on the bonds and the other on the stocks, and I think you can see how the stock market will try to make a stand.
As for oil, we are way overweighted in the stuff for Action Alerts PLUS and will be taking action this morning, so I will have to refer you to those bulletins.
Great call by David Yoe Williams on our roundtable earlier this week to buy gold off what's happening overseas right now.