Canada Goose is a luxury outdoor wear company and its $1,000 parkas and other sportswear and outdoor gear have found favor with the Aspen set and L.A. rappers. But this trendy appeal does not make for a great portfolio holding.
Canada Goose debuted last month in a $255 million IPO and ended its first day with cozy 25% gains.
But ever since, the Canadian company's performance has been predictably lackluster. There has been some up and down movement as the stock has whipsawed between just above $17 to around $15 per share in the last two weeks - still no huge movement here. On Tuesday, the stock closed just a hair's breadth above $16 per share - an overall 2.5% gain for the day, but below previous highs.
What makes Canada Goose such an unexciting and unappealing stock?
Simply put, it's not a great business. Fashion is fast and fickle, and what's trendy one day is either ridiculed or ready for the department store clearance racks the next. Although the company's $1,000 coats may be well made, their market is limited.
In addition, luxury retailers are facing headwinds right now. Political and economic uncertainty the world over has led to less "consumer tourism," in which the well-heeled of countries such as China visit glamorous shopping havens in the U.S.
And here in the U.S., competition for expensive accessories and clothing is fierce ... plus, department stores such as Nordstrom (JWN - Get Report) and Neiman Marcus are feeling pressure to apply unprecedentedly steep discounts on luxury goods in an effort to boost sales.
These headwinds were painfully brought home to luxury accessories brand Kate Spade (KATE) on Tuesday. A report from Reuters indicated that the maker of shoes and purses may be valued below its current market cap of $2.9 billion if it takes rival Coach (COH) up on its offer for a sale. The stock fell more than 14% during the day.
Consolidation through deals like this is going to become more common among luxury goods brands. And that should have Canada Goose and its investors worried.
By the time Canada Goose's rival North Face was acquired by holding company, VF Corp. (VFC) in 2000, it had posted a $100 million loss. Canada Goose could face a very similar fate.
Investors should continue to avoid Canada Goose like it's going out of style.
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