Wall Street could be in for a rocky week after the GOP's failure to repeal and replace Obamacare, a campaign commitment that markets viewed as a litmus test for President Trump's ability to achieve major change in Washington.
"It leaves investors worrying what's next," Charlie Ripley, investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management, told TheStreet. "We came into this knowing that a lot of these Trump agendas are going to take a lot longer than what investors have been anticipating, and we think the stumble with the health care bill is opening up the eyes of other investors to that notion."
That could spell trouble for a number of sectors -- most notably financials, which received a big boost following Trump's surprise election in November and his promises of relaxed industry regulation. House Speaker Paul Ryan said during a press conference on Friday afternoon that tax reform had been made more difficult by the health-care bill's failure, but not impossible.
Dow Jones futures fell 0.5% late Sunday, while S&P futures were down 0.65%. The Nikkei opened down 1% in Monday morning trading in Tokyo.
Allianz's Ripley said Friday's moves don't mean that "some of this stuff isn't going to happen ... but it is just going to take a little bit more time or maybe the runway is a little bit longer than what people have been expecting."
House leaders pulled the unpopular health care bill ahead of a vote late Friday afternoon after Republicans failed to secure enough votes for passage. While Ryan has promised the fight to repeal and replace Obamacare is ongoing, changes in the near term look unlikely. In a press conference on Friday, the speaker said Obamacare remains the law of the land and Americans will live with it for "the foreseeable future."
Health care stocks will be a focus for traders on Monday: Drugmakers Pfizer (PFE) , Merck (MRK) , Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) , and Biogen (BIIB) and health insurers Aetna (AET) , UnitedHealth (UNH) , and Cigna (CI) could see moves.
Pfizer, J&J and Biogen shares were flat Sunday, but Merck shares fell 0.6% to $62.81 in premarket trading. Aetna shares were flat, while shares of UnitedHealth spiked 0.8% to $166.35 and shares of Cigna fell 1.2% to $144.01.
Beyond health care, Wall Street's attention will return to the basics (economic data and the Federal Reserve) following a week laser-focused on Trump and the replacement of Obamacare.
"With clarity around results from the health care [bill], markets will be focused on economic data, being led by GDP, Chicago PMI, and University of Michigan sentiment figures," Bill Merz, investment strategist at U.S. Bank, told TheStreet.
The final estimates of fourth-quarter GDP growth will be released Thursday morning, and economists expect the U.S. continued to grow moderately in the period, the twilight of former President Barack Obama's administration. GDP growth probably ticked up to 2% growth from a previous estimate of 1.9%, according to estimates.
Also on the economic calendar in the coming week: International trade in goods for February, the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index for January, and the consumer confidence index for March will be released on Tuesday; pending home sales for February on Wednesday; weekly jobless claims as usual on Thursday; and personal income and outlays for February, and Chicago PMI and consumer sentiment for March on Friday.
It's a busy week for Fedspeak. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will speak at a Global Interdependence Center conference in Madrid on Monday and then at the DZ Bank-OMFIF International Capital Markets Conference in Frankfurt on Wednesday. Dallas Fed President Dennis Kaplan will discuss economic conditions in Texas on Monday, while Kansas City Fed President Esther George will give the keynote speech at a Women in Banking Forum in Oklahoma on Tuesday.
Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren will discuss the economic outlook at the Boston Economic Club and San Francisco Fed President John Williams will deliver a speech to the Forecasters Club of New York on Wednesday. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will speak at the 10th annual Risk Conference in Chicago on Thursday.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, the only dissenter to the Fed's decision in March to raise interest rates, will speak at the Annual Banking Law Institute on Friday. Also on Friday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will discuss monetary policy at the Quinnipiac Global Asset Management Education forum in New York.
On the earnings calendar, Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) , Digital Ally (DGLY) , G-III Apparel (GIII) and Red Hat (RHT) will report on Monday; Carnival (CCL) , Darden Restaurants (DRI) , Dave & Busters (PLAY) , FactSet (FDS) , McCormick (MKC) , Sonic (SONC) and Verint Systems (VRNT) on Tuesday; Gevo (GEVO) , Lululemon (LULU) , Progress Software (PRGS) , Sigma Designs (SIGM) and Unifirst (UNF) on Wednesday; Dollarama (DOL) on Thursday; and Blackberry (BBRY) on Friday.
It's the final week of the first quarter. The quarterly earnings season is still some way off, though, with reports not kicking into gear until around mid-April.