Jim Cramer fills his blog on RealMoney every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:
- How the mainstream media miss the message
- How IPOs could kill the bull
Click here for information on RealMoney, where you can see all the blogs, including Jim Cramer's -- and reader comments -- in real time.
Cramer: Mainstream Media Miss Message
Posted on March 17 at 12:36 p.m. EST
Any coincidence that the market is having a push day and oil's flat? I think we got trapped again in the world of oil and it is making little sense to me. I think it's all about the idea that we are out of things to trade off, so we default to oil as a barometer of what's good or bad.
One thing is for certain: We still don't see any articles in the mainstream press about how anything is better in business. I read so many articles about how this is peaking or that is peaking or this is going down or that is crumbling and I think, jeez, who are these people talking to?
I was with a group of CFOs the other night and almost everyone predicted that things are about to get better and that rates would be going higher because of it.
But these opinions never seem to get to out into the mainstream, which remains trapped in a narrative that unless Trump gets his way on tax reform and repatriation, it's all a castle in the sand.
That's a totally wrong way to look at it. The press should be far more focused on the idea of how companies are expanding because they know they can appeal to--or not fear surprises from--Washington.
Yes, there could be trade issues, we know that. Yes, we could be at risk of a war with North Korea or tariffs on Germany or a Mexican wall showdown, but the deregulation that is going on and the lack of enforcement of current rules are changing the atmosphere in a more pro-business way.
That's a tough story for most mainstream press people to write because you sound like such a jerk if you talk about the positives of not enforcing laws that you might like if you are a journalist.
But that's the way it is. If you don't factor in the gains from deregulation then you are missing, for example, what could have happened to Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) if the Dakota Access pipeline were shut down. You could be missing the loan growth that we are seeing in Texas and North and South Carolina and Tennessee and Georgia. You may not see all of the $47 billion in liquefied natural gas plants that are being built with plans for more because the FERC isn't going to stand in the way of new development. That's what the CEOs of the major regional banks in these areas tell me.
But, again, if you are a journalist who hates fossil fuels, you don't want to write those stories if you can avoid them.
It's just important to keep pointing out that the executive orders I have seen do create more jobs here even if you hate how and where they are created and who is creating them.
Maybe that's what's missing among the endless sea of negative pieces I read every day.
Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, has no positions in the stocks mentioned.
Cramer: Here's How IPOs Could Kill the Bull
Posted on March 17 at 5:51 a.m. EST
Not yet. No, we don't have to worry just yet.
I am talking about the coming onslaught of initial public offerings and how it will no doubt cause the short-term pause everyone is expecting in this market.
It didn't start yesterday with Canada Goose (GOOS) , even though lots of people were critical of my decision to embrace the deal. I did so because there is such scarcity of growth in apparel that it's kind of like what happened when Michael Kors (KORS) came public a few years ago. It was a must-own, because there were so few accessory investments worth making. Darn thing went from $23 to $97 before it hit the wall, and it's been downhill ever since. But what a ride. What a worthwhile ride to take. If you decided to avoid it because the stock ultimately went down to $37, then you forget that $97 was, indeed, attainable. Very few can get out at the top. But getting out at $87 or $77 would have been just fine, thank you.
And it won't start with Mulesoft (MULE) , which looks like a terrific company that truly helps clients like New Relic figure out if they have the right plumbing to be helpful to clients who are desperate to find out if their omnichannel is working. If Mulesoft makes applications work that tell you whether there is a sale at Wawa--the local convenience store where I grew up--count me in!
That company seems like it is totally worthwhile and it's got a good chance for a nice run.
But I keep thinking back to March 2014, when we got into the fever pitch. That was that era when we were seeing companies come public at a 9x or 10x enterprise to sales valuation and the market loved it ... until it didn't.
I am talking about that one spate when Amber Road (AMBR) , A10 Networks (ATEN) , Q2 Holdings (QTWO) , BorderFree (BRDR) , Paylocity (PCTY) and King Digital (KING) among a host of others came public, all will sliver deals, all popping until we were so sated with new stocks that there wasn't enough money out there to support them.
Lots of people ask me "what kills a bull." I always say that what kills the bull is supply, because markets are about supply and demand and when too much merchandise, or supply, is pumped out and it overwhelms demand, then the bull takes a header.
Do you know that this might be my 20th IPO cycle in 37 years when I see the supply coming? It looks to me as if we are white water rafting together and we hear the falls ahead, but we are having such a good time we say to ourselves: "why stop"?
Well, I will tell you why. The bottom of the waterfall is too far from here. Nobody makes it alive.
So forgive me, but if this pace that I keep hearing about of new deals keeps up, I am going to have to say that you have to stop having such a good time rafting unless you have wings on your raft and, sadly, I have never seen one that has.Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, has no positions in the stocks mentioned .