Nymex crude oil began 2017 setting a post-election high of $55.24 a barrel. Jan. 3 proved to be a "key reversal" day. A daily "key reversal" occurs when a market sets a new 52-week high, then closes below the prior day's low. Oil traded to its year-to-date low of $50.05 on Wednesday, approaching its 200-day simple moving average of $48.73.

Shares of oil services stocks Diamond Offshore (DO) , McDermott (MDR) , Noble Corp. (NE) and Transocean (RIG) initially performed stronger than crude oil post-election, but not so far in 2017, as only Noble has a year-to-date gain. All four are in bear market territory since setting their post-election highs.

An advanced warning for lower oil and oil stocks came from the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) , which is an exchange-traded fund that tracks a basket of 35 energy stocks. The warning is that this representation of the energy sector has had a negative weekly chart since the week of Jan. 27.

Here's a scorecard for oil, the energy ETF and four oil services stocks, followed by their weekly charts.

 

Nymex Crude Oil

 

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The weekly chart shifts to negative given a weekly close below its key weekly moving average of $52.59. Oil has been below its 200-week simple moving average since the week of Aug. 22, 2014, which was been a huge red flag. Weekly momentum is projected to decline to 70.72 falling below the overbought threshold of 80.00. Buy weakness to my annual value level of $47.80. My monthly pivot of $50.49 failed to hold on Wednesday. Sell strength to my semiannual risky level of $58.40.

Energy ETF

 

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The weekly chart is negative with the ETF below its key weekly moving average of $72.21. The energy ETF failed at its 200-week simple moving average of $77.65 during the week of Dec. 16. Weekly momentum is projected to decline to 24.68 approaching the oversold threshold of 20.00. Buy weakness to my quarterly value level of $59.87. Sell strength to my monthly risky level of $74.10.

Diamond Offshore

 

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The weekly chart is negative but oversold with the stock below its key weekly moving average of $16.92. Weekly momentum is projected to decline to 24.68 approaching the oversold threshold of 20.00. Buy weakness to my monthly value level of $11.47. Sell strength to 200-week simple moving average declining at $35.40. The stock is in bear market territory 32.7% below its post-election high of $22.65 set on Dec. 12.

McDermott

 

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The weekly chart is negative with the stock below its key weekly moving average of $7.28. Weekly momentum is projected to decline to 49.92 below the 80.00 overbought threshold and heading for the oversold threshold of 20.00. Buy weakness to the 200-week simple moving average of $5.82. Sell strength to my quarterly and monthly pivots of $7.23 and $7.87, respectively. The stock is in bear market territory 21.8% below its post-election high of $8.33 set on Jan. 25. The stock is also in bull market territory 31.3% above its post-election low of $4.96 set on Nov. 9.

Noble Corp.

 

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The weekly chart is negative with the stock below its key weekly moving average of $6.77. Weekly momentum is projected to decline to 47.54 below the 80.00 overbought threshold and heading for the oversold threshold of 20.00. Buy weakness to my semiannual value level of $4.58. Sell strength to my weekly risky level of $6.88. The stock is in bear market territory 27.1% below its post-election high of $8.37 set on Dec. 12. The stock is also in bull market territory 35.6% above its post-election low of $4.50 set on Nov. 8.

Transocean

 

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The weekly chart is negative with the stock below its key weekly moving average of $13.56. Weekly momentum is projected to decline to 35.51 below the 80.00 overbought threshold and heading for the oversold threshold of 20.00. Buy weakness to my quarterly and semiannual value levels of $7.73 and $6.58, respectively. My monthly pivot is $12.60. Sell strength to its 200-week simple moving average of $25.38. The stock is in bear market territory 25.6% below its post-election high of $16.66 set on Dec. 12. The stock is also in bull market territory 29.6% above its post-election low of $9.57 set on Nov. 8.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.

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