The FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile for the fourth quarter of 2016 shows data suggesting the top-five super regional banks continue to manage their assets quite well. BB&T Corp (BBT - Get Report) , M&T Bank (MTB - Get Report) , PNC Financial (PNC - Get Report) , SunTrust (STI - Get Report) and U.S. Bancorp (USB - Get Report) bottomed on Election Day and set post-election highs on March 1. These were all-time intraday highs, except for SunTrust, which remains significantly below its May 2007 high.

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The rally in regional banks anticipates that rules of Dodd-Frank will be softened, and that the Federal Reserve will raise rates on March 15. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation questions the notion that higher rates are positive for banks.

Tight net-interest margins caused many banks to stretch for yield by adding higher-risk assets with extended maturities in their securities portfolios. Higher longer-term market rates in the fourth quarter caused mark-to-market losses. Portfolios valued at $60 billion at the end of the third quarter were marked to an aggregate loss of $20 billion at the end of the fourth quarter.

The large regional banks are key to increasing real-estate lending to consumers. Mortgages on the books of banks rose by just 0.3% in the fourth quarter to $1.995 trillion, down 11.1% since the end of 2007. Nonfarm Nonresidential real estate loans rose by 1.7% in the fourth quarter and are up 36.7% since the end of 2007. This is a potential problem as retail stores close and as some malls become dark. Home Equity Loans declined 2.3% in the fourth quarter to $434 billion and are down 28.5% since the end of 2007. Home prices have been on the rise and are back to pre-bubble highs in most areas of the country, so where are the HELOCs?

Here's a scorecard for the five regional banks followed by weekly charts and trading levels.

 

BB&T Corp.

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The weekly chart is positive but overbought, with the stock above its key weekly moving average of $47.59. Weekly momentum is projected to slip to 81.30, which is a negative divergence above the overbought threshold of 80.00. Buy weakness to my annual value level of $42.32. Sell strength to my semiannual risky level of $50.29.

M&T Bank Corp.

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The weekly chart is positive but overbought with the stock above its key weekly moving average of $163.66. Weekly momentum is projected to slip to 86.55, which is a negative divergence above the overbought threshold of 80.00. Buy weakness to my semiannual value level of $158.21. My annual pivot is $165.89. Sell strength to my weekly risky level of $172.09.

PNC Financial

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The weekly chart is positive but overbought with the stock above its key weekly moving average of $123.67. Weekly momentum is projected to slip to 89.17 this week, which is a negative divergence above the overbought threshold of 80.00. Buy weakness to my annual value level of $112.67. My semiannual pivot is $127.70. Sell strength to my monthly risky level of $132.13.

SunTrust

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The weekly chart is positive but overbought, with the stock above its key weekly moving average of $58.12. Weekly momentum is projected to slip to 85.98 this week, which is a negative divergence above the overbought threshold of 80.00. Buy weakness to my quarterly value level of $46.07. My semiannual pivot is $57.65. Sell strength to my monthly risky level of $60.70, which was tested at the March 1 high.

U.S. Bancorp

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The weekly chart is positive but overbought, with the stock above its key weekly moving average of $53.87. Weekly momentum is projected to slip to 89.09 this week, which is a negative divergence above the overbought threshold of 80.00. Buy weakness to my annual value of $50.37. My semiannual pivot is $55.61. Sell strength to my monthly risky level of $56.92.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.