Shares of the fast-food chain may be worth about 30% more and its shares could go as high at $125, according to an Oppenheimer research report published Tuesday.
"Our deep dive into Jack's segmented financials reveals a $125/sh sum-of-parts," wrote analysts Brian Bittner and Michael Tamas in the report. "For argument's sake, if Qboda were fictitiously valued at zero, the remaining Jack in the Box is still $97/sh."
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Qboda is one of two types of eateries that Jack in the Box owns. Qboda Mexican Eats serves tacos, burritos and other Mexican-themed dishes and ingredients. Jack in the Box sells breakfast, lunch and dinner—such as French toast, eggs, home fries and burgers.
"The recent pullback [in the stock] has provided a buying opportunity...as we can still bridge to $400 million plus in EBITDA in '18, even with the guidance reduction in 2017," they wrote. Sales headwinds, like recent California flooding and rains and delayed tax refunds, were transitory they noted.
The analyst added that Qboda accounts for about 75% of the company's capital expenditure needs, but only 15% of profits. If separated, they added, Jack's capital expenditures would drop to about $35 million versus $130 million to $140 million (the value on Tuesday) and free cash flow in 2018 could be more than $160 million versus their consolidated estimate of $116 million. Using that formula, they wrote, would put the free cash flow yield based on the current stock price at 6% versus 4%, and the industry's at between 4% and 5%.
The analysts wrote that earnings growth through fiscal 2018 will likely be well ahead of consensus as Jack in the Box's same-store sales are seen rising 2.5% to 3.5% and Qboda sales are expected to gain 4% to 5%.
Jack in the Box, founded in 1951 in San Diego, operates with more than 2,200 restaurants in 21 states and Guam, and Qdoba has some 700 restaurants in 47 states, the District of Columbia and Canada. It has a market cap of $3.07 billion.