Apple Rises Amidst Surging Markets, but Investors Shouldn't Chase the Momentum

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the trading week by gaining 198 points for the week to close at a record 20,269. The S&P 500 gained nearly 19 points for the week to close at 2,316. The Nasdaq gained 67 points for the week and closed at 5,734 while the Russell 2000 closed at 1,389 for the trading week.

Once again, the S&P volume traded just shy of 300 million shares, its lowest volume week in 2017.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are extreme overbought on the weekly time frame, according to our SST Strategic Algorithm Numbers. The last time we saw this extreme overbought weekly condition for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq was the week ended Aug. 9, 2016.  From there, all four stock indexes retraced their gains and traded at or below their 22-day moving average.

Thus, it would appear that this stock market is at or near the end of its parabolic move to the upside since the election of President Donald Trump in early November.

The indices could still move higher, but the probabilities have greatly increased that we see some downside weekly action going forward.

One stock that has been on a tear has been Apple (AAPL) . Apple closed the trading week with a 2.36% gain.  For the month of February, Apple has gained 8.88% and for the year 2017, it has risen 14%.

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Can Apple continue to move higher at this pace? Don't look for much more of an upside from here.

The SST Strategic Number for Apple on a weekly time frame is 98.73.  With a green open on Monday, Apple will be extremely overbought on the weekly time duration and have its highest SST Weekly Number since the week ended Sept. 21, 2012.

The Apple SST chart will show this.  Traders and investors should take notice of this phenomena. This is a highly unusual event.

In addition, Apple closed trading on the weekly time frame with its price outside the +3 standard deviation.

Traders should back off and not chase this momentum.  Wait for a pullback to a lower price before taking any new long positions.

The weekly time frame should be used for making strategic decisions and the daily time frame should be used for making your tactical decision.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held TK positions in the stocks mentioned.

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