ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach $37 billion for the month of January, down 0.2 percent from a year ago.

Automakers revenue will be nearly flat with a slight decline of $68 million, despite an increase in average transaction prices year-over-year.

Average Transaction Prices in January 2017 declined by 2.8 percent compared to the prior month while showing a gain of 1.4 percent over the prior year.

"Continued strength of the truck and utility segments are expected to drive up average transaction prices despite the recent rise in incentive spending," said Eric Lyman, ALG's chief analyst. "Ford, Nissan and Toyota are the top three automakers that are leveraging the high demand of their truck and utility portfolio to accelerate revenues on a year over year basis," said Lyman.

ALG estimates the average transaction price (ATP) for a new light vehicle was $33,127 in January, up 1.4 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit grew by $645 to $3,635. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP was 11 percent, up from 9.2 percent a year ago.
 

Average Transaction Price (ATP)
 

Manufacturer
 

Jan. 2017Forecast
 

Jan. 2016
 

Dec.2016
 

PercentChangevs.Jan. 2016
 

PercentChangevs. Dec.2016
BMW (BMW, Mini)   $ 48,732   $ 50,447   $ 50,762   -3.4 %   -4.0 %
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)   $ 57,403   $ 57,998   $ 57,927   -1.0 %   -0.9 %
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)   $ 33,279   $ 32,493   $ 33,515   2.4 %   -0.7 %
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)   $ 37,048   $ 34,145   $ 36,768   8.5 %   0.8 %
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)   $ 35,436   $ 36,373   $ 37,940   -2.6 %   -6.6 %
Honda (Acura, Honda)   $ 27,076   $ 27,216   $ 27,827   -0.5 %   -2.7 %
Hyundai   $ 23,604   $ 23,465   $ 23,209   0.6 %   1.7 %
Kia   $ 22,833   $ 23,209   $ 23,172   -1.6 %   -1.5 %
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)   $ 29,045   $ 27,014   $ 28,595   7.5 %   1.6 %
Subaru   $ 29,168   $ 27,625   $ 28,294   5.6 %   3.1 %
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)   $ 33,236   $ 31,151   $ 33,038   6.7 %   0.6 %
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)   $ 31,837   $ 34,005   $ 34,178   -6.4 %   -6.8 %

Industry
 

$

33,127
 

$

32,680
 

$

34,093
 

1.4

%
 

-2.8

%
 
 

Incentive per Unit Spending
 

Manufacturer
 

Jan. 2017 Forecast
 

Jan. 2016
 

Dec. 2016
 

Percent Change vs. Jan. 2016
 

Percent Change vs. Dec. 2016
BMW (BMW, Mini)   $ 6,016   $ 4,192   $ 5,956   43.5 %   1.0 %
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)   $ 4,648   $ 3,592   $ 4,885   29.4 %   -4.8 %
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)   $ 4,408   $ 3,856   $ 4,469   14.3 %   -1.4 %
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)   $ 4,114   $ 3,054   $ 4,156   34.7 %   -1.0 %
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)   $ 4,504   $ 4,094   $ 4,653   10.0 %   -3.2 %
Honda (Acura, Honda)   $ 2,231   $ 1,672   $ 2,289   33.5 %   -2.5 %
Hyundai   $ 2,602   $ 1,904   $ 2,603   36.7 %   0.0 %
Kia   $ 3,411   $ 2,823   $ 3,390   20.8 %   0.6 %
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)   $ 4,335   $ 3,502   $ 4,463   23.8 %   -2.9 %
Subaru   $ 1,120   $ 570   $ 1,170   96.6 %   -4.2 %
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)   $ 2,538   $ 2,093   $ 2,820   21.3 %   -10.0 %
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)   $ 4,117   $ 3,155   $ 4,254   30.5 %   -3.2 %

Industry
 

$

3,635
 

$

2,990
 

$

3,761
 

21.6

%
 

-3.3

%
 
 

Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP
 

Manufacturer
 

Jan. 2017 Forecast
 

Jan. 2016
 

Dec. 2016
 

Percent Change vs. Jan. 2016
 

Percent Change vs. Dec. 2016
BMW (BMW, Mini)   12.3 %   8.3 %   11.7 %   48.6 %   5.2 %
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) 8.1 % 6.2 % 8.4 % 30.8 % -4.0 %
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) 13.2 % 11.9 % 13.3 % 11.6 % -0.7 %
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) 11.1 % 8.9 % 11.3 % 24.2 % -1.8 %
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) 12.7 % 11.3 % 12.3 % 12.9 % 3.6 %
Honda (Acura, Honda) 8.2 % 6.1 % 8.2 % 34.2 % 0.2 %
Hyundai 11.0 % 8.1 % 11.2 % 35.9 % -1.7 %
Kia 14.9 % 12.2 % 14.6 % 22.8 % 2.1 %
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) 14.9 % 13.0 % 15.6 % 15.1 % -4.4 %
Subaru 3.8 % 2.1 % 4.1 % 86.2 % -7.1 %
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) 7.6 % 6.7 % 8.5 % 13.6 % -10.5 %
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)   12.9 %   9.3 %   12.4 %   39.4 %   3.9 %

Industry
 

11.0

%
 

9.2

%
 

11.0

%
 

19.9

%
 

-0.5

%
 

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.

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