One category does deserve a particular mention though: fresh fruits and vegetables. America imports a lot of its produce, and Mexico is its top producer of agricultural imports. They would all jump in price.

Most notably, America imports nearly 80% of its avocados from Mexican farms. The country also supplies more than half of all U.S. tomatoes and a lot of the onions and peppers at the grocery store too. It's not just salsa that will feel the pinch. Pasta, pizza, hamburger, chili and more will start to get a lot more expensive too.

Most products made in America will get a little more expensive.

In the wake of NAFTA, Mexico and the United States have shared an unusual global relationship: an expensive, developed nation sharing a major land border with a developing, inexpensive one.

The result has been a vast integration of supply chains as U.S. and Mexican companies increasingly specialize in their strengths. On the American side of the border, that generally means the jobs that require skill and capital. On the Mexican side, that generally means labor.

Companies today have plants on both sides of the border, with U.S. employees and Mexican employees working together (even if they may not know it). Products are shipped back and forth at various stages of development, even the ones stamped "made in USA."

"A 20% tariff would have significant effects on American consumers," said Edward Alden, a senior fellow with the Council on Foreign Relations. "There may be other sources for some of these products, but the cost to Americans would certainly rise."

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