For the last several months, shares of Wynn Resorts (WYY - Get Report) have been trapped in a trading range, even though the stock is up 53% in the past year. Can investors really win with this stock?
For the last seven months, nobody has won in the share of Wynn Reports. In fact, in the last two years, S&P 500 has significantly outperformed the stock.
Last week, Wynn reported better-than-expected results and the stock jumped 7%. Wynn reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2016 earnings of 37 cents per share, 50 cents worse than the consensus estimate of 87 cents per share. Revenue rose 37.3% to $1.3 billion vs. the $1.24 billion estimate.
Investors were really excited by the better-than-expected adjusted property earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Adjusted property EBITDA was $340.9 million, up 18.6%. The result was about 2% better than expected. The recently opened Wynn Palace reported EBITDA of $78 million, which was ahead of the $68 million estimate. The Wynn Palace reported net revenue of $419 million, about 10% ahead of estimates. Wynn Vegas EBITDA was $115 million, up 8%, and total net revenue was $383 million -- also better than expected.
The Wynn Macau reported adjusted EBITDA of $149 million, slightly below the consensus estimate of $154 million. Total net revenue was $498 million. Total Wynn Macau gross gaming revenue of $559 million was down 10% year over year.
Overall, this was a solid quarter. Total revenue is projected to rise 23% in 2017, which included the recent opening of the Wynn Palace in Macau. Next year, revenue is expected to advance 4%, but in 2019, the company is scheduled to open Wynn Boston, which should drive revenue and earnings in 2019.
Historically, gaming stocks trade around 12 times enterprise value to EBITDA. At $103, the stock is trading at 14.3 times EV/EBITDA and 13 times 2018 EV/EBITDA. To me, shares of WYNN look fully valued. I would hold the stock in anticipation of upside related to the completion of the project in Boston.