(A longer version of this column originally appeared at 7:13 a.m. ET on Real Money, our premium site for active traders. Click here to get great columns like this from Jim Cramer and other writers even earlier in the trading day.)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has finally taken out the 20,000 level. The milestone is irrelevant from a fundamental and technical standpoint, but it has great psychological impact.
Of course, it's likely that the bears will be looking for today's breakout to simply be a setup for a quick reversal. But that's much like the "sell the inauguration" trade that many were expecting but that failed to materialize.
Now, many market players had been convinced that Donald Trump's inauguration would be a catalyst that would finally trigger a market correction. After all, we already had a good run following the November presidential election, while momentum had dried up in the past few weeks and the valuation arguments were hard to dispute.
The conditions for a "sell the news" reaction looked good, but market seldom makes it that simple. When a trade looks obvious to a large group of people, it seldom works because the anticipation undermines the move.
The market moves best when players are caught by surprise, but not too many folks would have been surprised if there was a Trump-induced dip. Indeed, it was very likely that the bulls were lined up to buy the dip that so many people had anticipated.
And while trying to anticipate market turns is hard enough, we also must contend these days with computer algorithms specifically designed to take advantage of poor humans who think they can predict future events. When a large group of folks thinks that something is going to play out in a certain way, you can bet that there's a machine on the other side of the trade.
What we need to know at this time is that the bulls have the edge, earnings are helping, many investors aren't well-positioned and the technical patterns are positive.
You can make good bearish arguments if you like, but ignore the price action at your peril.