President-elect Donald Trump's anti-China comments are raising the odds that Beijing regulators will try to stop Qualcomm (QCOM - Get Report) from buying NXP Semiconductors (NXPI - Get Report) for $39 billion -- which explains why NXPI shares are trading far below the deal's $110-a-share price, Jim Cramer says.
"I've done a number of checks, and all I keep coming back with is that when Trump makes noise about China, what can China do directly to cause problems?" Cramer said Wednesday during an exclusive conference call with members of his Action Alerts PLUS investors club. "Are [the Chinese] going to be able to say, 'Listen we don't want Caterpillar CAT, [or] 'We're going to kick out Apple AAPL?' Well, those things [would start a trade] war. No, what you would do is say: 'You know what? We're not happy with [the Qualcomm/NXPI] takeover. We want to block it.'"
Qualcomm cut a deal in October to buy NXP Semiconductors for $110 a share in cash, but NXPI shares only fetch around $98 these days. Cramer traced the disparity back to the possibility that Chinese regulators will block the deal as retaliation for Trump's harsh anti-Beijing rhetoric.
"If that's the case, then I think NXPI can go down five or six points and we'll buy more of it," he said. "But otherwise, we're holding out for $110. If we change our mind on this and I feel more strongly that this deal has no hope and that the company itself is not doing well, then we will take that very big profit that we have."
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