That was fast.
The Trump rally is likely over, according to David Nelson, chief strategist at Belpointe Asset Management.
"That doesn't mean the bull market is done," he added.
Over the past month, energy stocks in the S&P 500 slumped 1.7%, while financials lost 1.3%. The S&P 500 is up only 0.6% over the past month and 4.9% since Nov. 9, the day after Trump won the presidential election. The Trump rally was fueled by expectations of tax cuts, deregulation and infrastructure spending under the new administration.
The question now is how those expectations become realities. Nelson pointed to the gap between rhetoric and policy.
"We're going to see if that move in financials was really justified," Nelson said.
Financial stocks surged on hopes of a scale-back of the landmark 2010 Dodd-Frank financial reform bill. Infrastructure spending may boost economic growth, which would require a faster pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes, another boon for banks that would see net interest margins rise under a more aggressive Fed.
Nelson has also changed his outlook on the health care sector. "That was a laggard [in 2016] but can make some good moves this year,' he said. In aggregate, health care stocks in the S&P 500 lost 2.5% in 2016.
Trump has vowed to repeal the Affordable Care Act and replace it with a more cost-effective health care system. In 2016, Aetna (AET) and UnitedHealth (UNH) announced plans to withdraw from many Affordable Care Act exchanges as they struggled to find profits.