Doug Kass shares his views every day on RealMoneyPro. Click here for a real-time look at his insights and musings.
My Takeaways and Observations
Originally published Jan. 4 at 4:08 p.m. EDT
I love gold.
As January goes ... well it's nonsense.
Reviewing my investment troops.
Markets in tune with my expectation of a strong first two weeks--money, in particular, is going into the Russell. Its crowing.
My pal Danielle DiMartino on trade.
Peter Boockvar on the Fed minutes.
Tattoo on Bitcoin.
I re-established my SDS long at $14.74.
At 3:30 p.m. stocks were near their intraday highs.
- The U.S. dollar weakened.
- The price of crude oil rose by about $0.75 to over $53 a barrel.
- Gold rose by $1.70.
- Ag commodities strengthened: wheat up $0.11, corn up $0.04, soybeans up $0.19 and oats up $0.03.
- Lumber was flat.
- Bonds were flat with yields unchanged.
- The 2s/10s spread was flat.
- Municipals were bid for and closed-end muni-bond funds were slightly higher.
- Junk bonds rose in price and Blackstone/GSO Strategic Credit Fund (BGB - Get Report) was up a penny.
- Banks, after a slow start--made new highs for the day this afternoon.
- Insurance was up with Hartford Financial (HIG - Get Report) rising 2%.
- Brokerages continue to step along -- albeit a lower pace of rise than usual!
- Old tech was led by short International Business Machines (IBM - Get Report) (up $2.55). I plan to add to this position in the next few days.
- Biotech was strong--up by nearly 3% with broad gains--led by Gilead Sciences (GILD - Get Report) and some speculative names which were particularly stronger.
- Big pharma was flat after yesterday's strong performance.
- Auto stocks responded to better industry sales for the month.
- Ag equipment a tale of two cities with my short, Caterpillar (CAT - Get Report) , lower (I have added this week) but Deere (DE - Get Report) up $1.70.
- Consumer staples were slightly higher. Campbell Soup (CPB - Get Report) a new high.
- Fertilizers continue to shine.
- Retail rebounded led by Home Depot (HD - Get Report) , Nordstrom's (JWN - Get Report) , Foot Locker (FL - Get Report) , Nike (NKE - Get Report) and Kohl's. JCPenney (JCP - Get Report) lagged. I sold my trading rentals in Macy's and Kohl's.
- (T)FANG was mixed with Alphabet (GOOGL - Get Report) lower and Tesla (TSLA - Get Report) stronger.
- In terms of individual names, DuPont (DD) up, Radian (RDN - Get Report) a new high and Oaktree Capital (OAK - Get Report) catching up from recent weakness.
Here are some value-added contributions on our site:
- A hard chargin' bull from Jim "El Capitan" Cramer.
- Shad Gad " And The Pharoahs" reviews last year's picks.
- Mike Norman believes the T rump rally is built on hype rather than an improving real economy.
- Jonathan Heller with some interesting small-cap niche plays for this year.
- Ed Ponsi "Scheme" on Tesla, Trump and Musk.
Long: SDS large, HIG large, RDN, JCP large, CPB large, DD small, AGN, GLD large
Short: SPY, CAT, IBM small, MET small, LNC small, IWM small, AAPL, GLD puts, JCP puts
Position: See above.
Reviewing My Investment Troops
Originally published Jan. 4 at 10:43 a.m. EDT
Some morning observations:
- The Mighty Oak--Oaktree Capital Group (OAK - Get Report) --is regaining some leaves as it is up $1.20 for the second up day in a row. I surmised that tax selling held the shares back in December; perhaps I was on the right track!
- Radian Group (RDN - Get Report) has hit another new high and is up 84% from its July inclusion on my Best Ideas List.
- Campbell Soup (CPB - Get Report) is mmm mmm good! Another new high.
- Same for Best Ideas member Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG - Get Report) (up 1.5%).
- Retail stocks are an upside highlight today in marked contrast to yesterday's schmeissing. A nice move from JCPenney JCP.
- Bonds are better, despite strong European and U.S. data. I continue to see the 10-year U.S. note yield falling back to 2.25% in the near term.
- Allergan (AGN - Get Report) , after heading higher earlier, is now down on the day. It deserves a rest--it might be the pause that refreshes!
- Technology is a conspicuous laggard. My short PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQ - Get Report) is my Top Pick for 2017.
- Fertilizers are rallying--something Peter Boockvar opined on this morning
- Banks are off their highs as JPMorgan Chase (JPM - Get Report) turns negative. Watch this group!
- I am adding to my ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 ETF (SDS - Get Report) long, moving toward a large weighting.
Position: Long OAK, RDN, CPB large, HIG large, JCP large, AGN, SDS; short JCP puts, QQQ.