Many things need to go right if the stock market is to continue its advance, Jim Cramer told his Mad Money viewers Tuesday. That's why Cramer urged investors to take a pause and wait for lower prices before buying into the 2017 rally.
Cramer said Tuesday's market advances were buoyed in part by a flood of new money into stocks, probably from 401Ks -- something that usually happens at the beginning of the year. But for the Trump rally to continue into the new year in a meaningful way, a lot of things need to go right.
Earnings season will soon be upon us, Cramer cautioned, and with so many questions remaining about what Trump really means for businesses of all kinds, the forecasts from the housing, retail and auto sectors will have to be curbed.
Additionally, just today we saw signs that the House agenda may not be perfectly aligned with Trump's.
Cramer said for those who own stocks, he'd tell them to hold on, but for those looking to commit new money, he'd suggest waiting for some of these events to play out and then invest at lower prices.
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What We Can Learn From 2016's Winners
After last year's remarkable run, many of the market's leaders have already given us a lot, Cramer told viewers. Is it too much to ask them for more? Cramer dove into the top five Dow Jones Industrial Average winners to find out.
Topping the list was Caterpillar (CAT) , which rose 36% in 2016. Cat rallied on innovation and supply chain management, which put the company more in control of its own destiny. But Cramer said given a skyrocketing dollar, this stock has given all it can for now.
Next was UnitedHealth Group (UNH) , also up 36% last year. With this company poised to be a big influencer in what replaces Obamacare, Cramer said, he's betting on a two-year run for this health-care provider.
Chevron (CVX) was also up big in 2016, 31% to be exact. But Cramer said that this company trades in lockstep with oil and he's not betting on a rally any time soon.
Finally, there's Goldman Sachs (GS) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) . Cramer said Goldman can continue roaring as deregulation will allow this company to flourish. As for JPMorgan, Cramer said this is his favorite among the five, as higher interest rates will boost its earnings significantly.
What About the S&P Winners?
Making it to the Super Bowl of stocks two years in a row is very tough, Cramer told viewers, as he looked at some of the biggest S&P 500 winners from last year to see which ones might have what it takes to at least have a winning season in 2017.
Chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) topped the winners list in 2016 and Cramer said this stock is not done going higher, even though it trades at 37 times earnings. The company continues to fire on all cylinders and is playing in all of the hottest markets, including data centers, artificial intelligence and virtual reality.
Cramer was also bullish on Applied Materials (AMAT) , the semiconductor equipment maker that will make these next-generation chips.
ONEOK (OKE) rallied 133% last year and Cramer said this "back from the dead" oil and gas provider is also likely to be a winner in 2017. Cramer also gave the nod to Halliburton (HAL) , his favorite among the oil service names.
Cramer was bearish on on Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) , a stock which he said needs more global growth to thrive.
We May Have Even More to Learn From the Losers
Are any of last year's biggest losers poised to recover in 2017? Cramer once again turned to the S&P 500 to find out.
Cramer said that some business models, like overseas inversions, just aren't relevant anymore, which makes companies like Endo International (ENDP) , a sell. It's also not a favorable environment for solar panels, he continued, which also makes First Solar (FSLR) a sell.
Some stocks, like TripAdvisor (TRIP) , should be doing well, but aren't, which keeps them in the penalty box. The same with with generic drug maker Perrigo (PRGO) , which has estimates that are still too high to achieve.
But among the losers, Cramer did find some gems, like Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) , Allergan (AGN) , a stock he owns for Action Alerts PLUS, and Regeneron (REGN) . All of these got caught up in the political whirlwinds of 2016, he said, but if investors have patience, they could prove to be golden in 2017.
In his "No-Huddle Offense" segment, Cramer said that Trump's one-off attacks on individual companies detracts from the real issue: Mexico's currency advantage.
Cramer explained that when NAFTA was first signed, the U.S. dollar could buy four Mexican pesos. Today, that number is 20, which gives Mexico a huge advantage that NAFTA never intended.
The problem with moving manufacturing back to the U.S. is that it raises the cost of living for everyone, Cramer said, including the people Trump is aiming to help. Going after the currency issue, however, would help to fix the problem for everyone.
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