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More cracks are starting appear in the Trump rally, Jim Cramer told his Mad Money viewers Tuesday, and that means that risks are developing in stocks we thought were risk free.
Cramer's cautionary words came after President-elect Trump took aim at an alleged $4 billion government contract with Boeing (BA - Get Report) to build a new Air Force One. Military cost overruns are everywhere, Cramer noted, but perhaps Trump is looking to change that. Nearly 20% of Boeing's business stems from the military, giving Trump some leverage.
What does this mean for defense stocks such as Lockheed Martin (LMT - Get Report) and Northrop Grumman (NOC) , which are up 22% and 30%? Cramer said these companies have great value long term, but in the short term they may be risky.
Cramer remains bullish on the banks and the oil and gas sectors, both of which are likely to flourish under Trump. He also recommended taking a second look at growth stocks such as Netflix (NFLX - Get Report) .
It's a brave new world, Cramer concluded. As Trump takes aim at more companies and industries, it will only reinforce those that are not on his radar.
Executive Decision: Robert Finizio
For his "Executive Decision" segment, Cramer sat down with Robert Finizio, CEO of TherapeuticsMD (TXMD - Get Report) , the biotech working on hormone replacement therapies for women. Shares spiked 12.8% Tuesday on positive Phase III clinical data, but are still negative for the year.
Finizio explained there are two hormones that decline during menopause, and his company's drug is the first to formulate both of those drugs naturally. That's why he couldn't be happier the latest Phase III results show the formulation is both safe and effective.
Finizio added that the market opportunity in the U.S. alone could be $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion a year, with additional opportunities overseas. TherapeuticsMD plans to file for FDA approval in the third quarter of 2017, Finizio said, and after an expected 10-month review, bring the drug to market.
Off the Charts
In the "Off the Charts" segment, Cramer checked in with colleague Robert Moreno to see where both interest rates and the dollar are likely headed now that our economy is gearing up for Trump.
Moreno first looked at a weekly chart of the 20-Year Treasury Yield and noted that after falling for decades, yields are now spiking in anticipation of higher interest rates starting next year.
Moreno next looked at a chart of the ProShares Ultrashort 20-Year Treasury (TBF - Get Report) exchange-traded fund, noting that after a bottom in July, rates have been on the rise with a long way yet to run. The Relative Strength Indicator, MACD and Chaikin Money Flow all confirm the move higher, as does the heavy volume.
Finally, there's the dollar, which after trading sideways for two years is now breaking out of its ceiling of resistance.
All of these charts show that investors are betting our economy is getting its groove back, Cramer said.
Executive Decision: Scott Sheffield
In his second "Executive Decision" segment, Cramer sat down with Scott Sheffield, chairman and CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD - Get Report) , the shale oil producer with shares up over 50% for the year, now that oil has surged past $50 a barrel.
Sheffield is very bullish on Pioneer's assets, including the Permian Basin and in particular the Straberry/Wolfcamp shale, which he said is now the second largest oil field in the world. No one believed that three years ago, he noted, but now nearly half of U.S. oil rigs are located there.
Sheffield touted Pioneer's balance sheet, saying his company has no debt and the ability to growth without the need for additional equity offerings for quite some time to come.
As for operating costs, Sheffield said it now costs Pioneer just $8 to $10 a barrel in finding costs, which is down from $15 to $18 dollars just a few years ago. Those gains all stem from increased efficiency, which makes oil in the mid-$50s more than profitable.
Finally, Sheffield said that Pioneer received two Christmas presents in November, a deal from OPEC and Donald Trump, both of which make him excited for America and his industry's future.
With a stock up 400% under Sheffield's tenure, Cramer asked what's not to like about Pioneer Natural Resources?
Focus on OPEC
Continuing his focus on oil, Cramer also sat down with Rusty Brazial, president and principal energy markets Consultant to RBN Energy, as well as being the author of The Domino Effect, which also focuses on OPEC and the future of the oil industry.
Brazial said the recent OPEC deal is a good thing for oil, but there are holes in it. Mainly, he said, Russia, a non-OPEC member is on the honor system and the deal itself is only valid for six months.
The principal driver for the deal was Saudi Arabia, Brazial said, which is trying to boost prices for itself while not reigniting U.S. oil production, which was growing by 100,000 barrels a day as crude prices rose above $50 a barrel.
As for our new pro-fossil fuel president-elect, Brazial said Donald Trump wants to help the oil industry get more done but, he said, under Barack Obama the industry got less done and were still able to crush oil prices. What will getting more done mean? That remains to be seen.
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