How to Trade a Pandora Short-Covering Rally

The internet streaming music services company Pandora Media (P) has experienced several notable swings in its stock price since it became a publicly traded company. Recently, shares have been attempting to consolidate in a well-defined pattern that could be a platform for a tradable move higher.

On the weekly chart, Pandora stock can be seen making a series of lower highs and lower lows immediately after its IPO in June 2011, in the process forming a long-term downtrend line. It bottomed in November 2013 and then broke above the downtrend line and its 40-week moving average.

Then the stock began making a series of higher highs and higher lows as it rallied more than 425% percent in the next 16 months to its 2014 high. That level proved unsustainable. Three very high wick candles formed, ending the parabolic run and initiating a reversal that, over the next two years, completely erased the previous gains, taking the share price back down to its 2012 low.

After making that low in February of this year, the stock managed to rally over the next six months before forming a September and October double top. It then retraced 62% of its year-to-date gain.

This month, a cup-and-handle pattern formed on the daily chart below rim-line resistance in the $11.30 area. Moving average convergence/divergence has made a bullish crossover, and the relative strength index moved out of an oversold condition and is nearing its center line.

The accumulation/distribution line has crossed above its signal line and the money flow index, a volume-weighted measure of relative strength, is above its center line. These readings reflect improved price momentum and positive money flow.

A large white candle formed in Monday's session closing near the high of the day and just below rim-line resistance. There is a 21% short interest in the stock, and a sustained breakout could spark a covering rally.

Pandora is a buy at its current level, using an initial percentage stop under the handle of the pattern.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no position in the stocks mentioned.

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