Top economists at Mizuho believe economic growth in many regions of the world will be stronger in 2017, but there are new risks for the markets to consider heading into the new year.
In the U.S., President-elect Trump's plans to increase fiscal spending will lead to somewhat stronger growth next year, according to Steven Ricchiuto, chief U.S. economist for Mizuho, who thinks GDP potentially could rise 2.25% percent.
"The bigger question is whether or not that increase in spending leads to a self-sustaining pick-up in economic activity going beyond a couple of quarters in 2017. And that's where I get concerned when I see the market response that we've seen in the last few days," he said.
Ricchiuto believes U.S. bond yields will continue to rise, and the dollar will also continue to strengthen. "Those two factors alone could create an incredible counterbalance to the fiscal stimulus, and reduce its ability from being self-sustaining going into 2018."
For Europe, the stronger dollar is the "answer to the ECB's prayers," according to Christel Aranda-Hassel, chief economist for Europe. While there are immediate benefits for Europe, she cautions that rising rates could be an issue.
"The ECB needs to be very, very careful because obviously higher yields are ultimately tightening the monetary policy environment," said Aranda-Hassel.
In Asia, economic growth will likely continue, thanks to government efforts to stimulate growth in both Japan and China, according to Mizuho's economists.
J.G. Shen, Mizuho's chief economist for Asia, doesn't expect Trump will impose trade tariffs against China, saying such a move would be destabilizing and potentially hurt American companies like Action Alerts PLUS holding Apple (AAPL) , Boeing (BA) and U.S. automakers.
Trade will likely be high on the agenda when Trump meets with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe this week, according to Tomochika Kitaoka, Mizuho's senior economist for Japan. He was also optimistic that trade between Japan and the U.S. would not be curtailed.