"We are expecting modestly high rates, a stronger U.S. dollar and a boost to growth given Trump's plans to lower corporate and individual tax rates, expand infrastructure spending and allow companies to repatriate offshore funds at reduced tax rates," said Scott Service, co-portfolio manager of the Loomis Sayles Global Bond Fund.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond has surged above 2.2% from 1.8% since Trump was elected president. Service said the majority of the move in interest rates is over because in his view, it will take "well into 2018 before there is a material pick-up in growth and inflation."
The Loomis Sayles Global Bond Fund is up 5.9% thus far in 2016, according to Morningstar. The $1.2 billion fund has returned an average of 66 basis points annually over the past five years, putting it in the 64th percentile of Morningstar's world bond fund category. The fund sports a trailing 12-month yield of 9 basis points, according to Morningstar.
Service said he favors the U.S. credit market slightly over Europe and the U.K., due to the yield advantage and the better economic outlook. That said, Service did point out that Europe does benefit, however, from being further behind in the credit cycle.
In terms of sectors, Service said the biggest beneficiaries on the credit side would include banks, big pharma, energy and steel. On the flip side, he said potential losers of this new environment would likely include hospitals, renewables, REITs, utilities and transportation.
"The biggest risks for bondholders include a significantly stronger U.S. dollar, a more aggressive than anticipated Fed, a substantial slowdown in China, and foreign outflows from the corporate asset class," said Service.