Companies are running out of earnings power. Margins are at record highs. Big investors are selling stocks more than they're buying.
You've heard all of these reasons for why the bull market is closer to ending, but stocks just keep on moving higher. Now with the election taking some uncertainty off the table, stocks have resumed their rally, with the S&P 500 gaining nearly 4% since Donald Trump became President-elect. Let the good times roll, right?
That's all well and good, but what if we really are near the end? What happens then?
"I think there's tremendous pressure from the populous and political players to raise rates in December," said Don Schreiber, CEO, co-portfolio of WBI, which has $2.1 billion in assets under management. "If we raise rates, the theory is that we will grow faster. We had a 2% growth rate in 2015, the Fed raised 25 basis points and cut the GDP growth rate in half. If they raise again, the economy will get crushed."
Currently, traders are betting on a rate hike from the Federal Reserve. A look at the fed funds futures rate, a measure of how likely it will be the Federal Open Market Committee raises rates, stands at just over a 90% chance of a rate hike in December. This comes despite concerns that a Trump win would throw off financial markets and send them into haywire, something that has not happened as of yet.
Comments from various Fed officials in recent days make it more likely than not we'll get another rate hike next month, when the FOMC concludes its two-day meeting on December 14.