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Oh, I wish I were an expert on healthcare stocks instead of oil and gas -- that'd make the forecasting of what will happen under a new Trump administration so much easier. With Obamacare's repeal of the most likely of several of President-elect Trump's "proposals" to come to pass, we've seen and will continue to see a whopping rally in the healthcare sector and insurance. With the energy space, predicting what will be affected and how soon is proving to be much more difficult to parse.
But try we must. Mr. Trump's energy policy, when any of it was even marginally spelled out, did not amount to much -- although he did vow to help the coal miners he campaigned in front of in West Virginia. But other clues about how Trump will deal with the economy and regulation might give us a better clue of where to look for value.
First, with coal. It has been true that the Obama administration, with its strict EPA mandates on utility emissions, has accelerated the decline of coal use here in the U.S. The election of Trump certainly assumes that those EPA restrictions will be rolled back. Stocks like Arch Coal (ARCH) , Peabody (BTUUQ) and Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) had their best few days in years, all climbing in double digits. Still, the path of lowering carbon emissions has now been ingrained in the utility industry in long-term production goals that they are unlikely to alter much, even if the EPA removes all of their targets for the next decade.