The U.S. dollar fell sharply, then snapped back against major currencies in global forex trading as last night's shocking election of Donald Trump to the White House roiled financial markets. As forex markets blew hot and cold, some observers were quick to draw parallels between last night's stateside vote and the U.K.'s June 23 vote to leave the European Union, known as Brexit. The impact on the Greenback, however, was expected to be less extreme by some observers.
Eddie Topic, head of FX trading at ADM ISI in London, noted that "over actions in the forex market have happened, but they've been tempered and the market has quieted down a little." He also observed that in euro dollars, there was a potential for a key reversal upward.
Pound sterling futures opened for December contracts on the CME Globex at 1.2379, reaching a high of 1.2447 and a low of 1.2361 by mid-day. Contracts for March 2017, when the U.K. was expected to leave the EU following the Brexit vote, opened at 1.234, hitting a high of 1.2578 and a low of 1.2388.
Some analysts think this is another instance where the U.S. dollar will benefit from the continuing Brexit fallout. David Lamb, head of dealing at London-based Fresco Corporate Payments, waxed optimistic about what may be in store for the U.S. dollar--at least in the short term.
"America's Brexit moment has sent stock markets reeling, but there's a key difference - unlike the Pound in June, the Dollar has remained surprisingly steady," he said."Knee-jerk falls against other major currencies were soon reversed, and against both the euro and the pound, the dollar is back to where it was when the [election] polls opened," he added.
This was in part, he said, because the pound has "lost its safe haven status" in the Brexit aftermath.
"Right now, many see swapping dollars for sterling as jumping from the frying pan into the fire," Lamb said. Market participants, he added, "are so far gripped by paralysis rather than panic."
Lamb's view from London was that Trump's post-election address had "settled nerves to a degree" among market participants." He added: "There is at least consensus on one thing - America is taking a leap into the unknown and the potential for U.S. dollar volatility beckons."