Editor's note: This article originally appeared at 5:58 a.m. on Nov. 9 on Real Money, our premium site for active traders. To get great columns like this from Jim Cramer and other top columnists earlier in the trading day, click here.
Do you sell it or buy it?
Of course, it depends on the level. But we can at least recognize that the stock market was trying to get its arms around a possible Trump win ever since FBI Director James Comey came out with the new batch of emails that re-opened the Clinton email server.
We had nine straight down days, the longest streak in years, and then we tacked on a couple of percentage points when Comey repealed his surprise, so you know we have to give that Monday and Tuesday rally up as it was based on a Hillary victory.
But here's the real issue here. When we look at what Trump has talked about economically -- not about lifestyle -- but economically, he wants his cake and to eat it too.
He wants lower taxes. He wants more growth. He wants less globalization but more trade. He wants other countries to take our goods and he wants to retaliate against them for taking our markets. If he got his way, it would be amazing for American business and you could see why you would want to buy everything that's involved in world trade.
Except, that's the real issue: we have negotiated a tremendous number of trade deals that have helped our international businesses. If Trump pushes that agenda, I could count 17 stocks out of 30 in the Dow that would suffer from potential retaliation and a shrinkage of world trade.
That's a lot of the Dow. It's why I think the rebound off last night's lows is too glib and I wouldn't bite up here.
I talk to a lot of the CEOs of those companies. Their biggest fear if Trump won is that doors would close to additional business. What they might make up here, say in more infrastructure, they will lose to foreign competitors.
There are 17 companies where you could take numbers down because they have so much international earnings that are in jeopardy, and it won't be made up by weakness in the dollar that we are seeing this morning.
I think that when you have a Republican Congress and a Republican President you have the heat taken off the drug companies. Consider Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) , Merck (MRK) and Dividend Stock Advisor portfolio holding Pfizer (PFE) : these are three potential winners.
They have huge overseas earnings, and presumably those earnings will be coming back here because a unified government will make changes that allow foreign cash to be repatriated, and the governments overseas aren't going to retaliate and shut down their borders to these drugs.
We have Goldman Sachs (GS) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) , which are both companies that did well with Brexit, the analogous shocker. I think they can do well again now on this for trading, but I am sure others will say this stays the Fed's hand come December.
And when it comes to oil, we have a new president who is pro-drilling -- but more important, Iran is one of three countries where the policy is going to change, Mexico and China being the other two -- and that means you can expect that international tensions will be on the rise and that could mean good things for Chevron (CVX) and Exxon-Mobil (XOM) .
Finally, you could argue that the Fed stays on hold because of this turmoil and it would make it so Verizon's (VZ) yield at 4.85% is worth grabbing, unless this bond selloff continues.
Frankly, those winners certainly can't offset the losers. Which is why you can't just blindly buy.
Nor can you assume that after we repeal the last 2% we tacked on when Comey reversed his view, that you can just go buy as if the market had fully discounted a Trump win.
There are too many companies that can be retaliated against if Trump goes hard.
But you also have to recognize one other totally bizarre crazy fact, but it is one I keep thinking about from the time I worked with Trump as a judge on The Apprentice: the Ratings.
The Trump I know would regard the stock market as ratings. He has always felt that the Chinese and the Mexicans got the better deals when it came to trade.
But he also knows that when the stock market goes up he thinks that's a sign of economic health if done well, based on growth.
So it's possible he mitigates the rhetoric that could cause retaliation and the 17 stocks that could see their earnings cut back because of a trade war will have their misfortunes mitigated.
Otherwise, here's my take: too many stocks are still prepped to get hurt that anyone can cavalierly just come in and buy everything.
But domestic stocks and beaten-up health care names? They work.
Or, to put it another way, the stocks that had been doing the worst -- the domestics and the health cares -- the ones that were regarded as the nemesis of Hillary -- could be the winners. The banks, if the rates keep going higher, are the other terrific place to be. There just aren't enough in the Dow.
There are plenty of them elsewhere to go around.