Much has been said about the potential economic fallout from a Trump win for American companies and close trading partners of the U.S. but European banks have largely slipped beneath the radar.
However, a considerable exposure to Mexico, seen as one of the biggest economic losers from a Trump win, mean that BBVA and Banco Santander face the most uncertainty of European companies ahead of when Trump takes up his place in the White House in January. A reflection of that concern was played out overnight in global currency markets, with the peso falling 9.4% to a record low against the U.S. dollar.
BBVA stock fell as much as 9% in early European trading, to reach lows of €5.90, while Banco Santander also fell close to 10% to touch lows of €4.10.
According to estimates from analysts at Jefferies, BBVA earns around 40% of its profits from Mexico and Banco Santander takes some 8% from the North American nation.
"Factoring in 2009-style levels of loan losses in Mexico...would reduce our BBVA profits by 23% in 2017 and 8% for Santander," Benjie Creelan at Jefferies said, before downgrading BBVA from buy to hold and reiterating his under perform rating for Banco Santander.
Mexico is seen as likely being the hardest hit of sovereigns from Trump's victory given his campaign rhetoric that suggested he would rewrite the North American Free Trade Agreement, build a wall along the Mexican border and tax remittances of money from the U.S. to Mexico in order to fund the barrier.
Around 80% of Mexican exports go to the United States, leaving the Mexican economy heavily reliant on the U.S. for stability and growth. The election result now leaves Mexico hanging in the balance.
"We do not see justification for pricing in recession at this point. Nevertheless, we are facing a period of uncertainty," said Creelan at Jefferies.