Futures and Oil Plunge, Gold Jumps as Trump Victory Appears Increasingly Likely

Futures markets and oil prices cratered and gold climbed overnight Tuesday as election results pointed to a widening path to victory for Donald Trump. Prediction markets swung in the Republican nominee's favor as well.

Networks projected a Trump victory in battleground states Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa and Georgia, while California, Virginia, North Carolina and New Mexico broke for Clinton. America remains on edge late into the evening as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Utah, New Hampshire and Wisconsin are still too close to call.

"Global markets are being shaken up -- you can hear early alarm bells ringing," said Nigel Green of deVere Group financial consultancy. "This should be expected, as markets tend to have knee-jerk reactions to these kind of situations. ... Trump represents uncertainty -- which markets hate -- and [markets] had all but priced in a Clinton victory."

Futures markets plunged approaching midnight Eastern Time. The Dow plummeted nearly 800 points, the S&P 100 points, and the NASDAQ over 240 points. Gold soared 4.6% to more than $1,300 per ounce. In currencies, the dollar fell 3.7% against the yen, and the peso plunged more than 13%. Oil fell 3.7%.

Most major Asian stock-market indices were also lower. Japan's Nikkei 225 was down 5.3%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index lost 2.8%. 

According to one estimate, global equity markets could tumble by as much as 15% if Trump wins the White House.

Prediction markets, which for months have been pointing heavily to a Clinton victory, swung in Trump's favor as well. U.S.-based prediction market PredictIt now gives Trump about 97% odds at winning the White House. Earlier in the day, he was at less than 30% odds. PredictWise, which aggregates data from prediction markets and other sources, now has Trump with an 95% chance at victory and Clinton's odds at just 19%.  

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