What does the new administration mean for Wall Street? Jim Cramer's first reaction to the election is live on TheStreet's Facebook page Wednesday morning at 8 a.m. ET. He joins our team of reporters along with experts and analysts tracking the markets with us.
Prediction markets see Election Day resulting in a win for Hillary Clinton, and they're probably right.
As American voters head to the polls on Tuesday, prediction markets point rather decisively to a victory for Clinton over her rival Donald Trump. U.S.-based market PredictIt gives the former secretary of state 82% odds at the White House, and U.K.-based Betfair lists Clinton's chances at 83%. PredictWise, which aggregates data from PredictIt, Betfair, polling and other sources, has Clinton with 89% odds of winning.
"Clinton is in pretty good shape," said David Rothschild, Microsoft Research economist and founder of PredictWise.
While there is no such thing as a sure thing, Democrats should be heartened by prediction market signals.
Intrade, the now-defunct prediction market out of Ireland, correctly predicted the outcomes of the 2004, 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. This election cycle, PredictIt got the primaries and caucuses right 94% of the time, and when a candidate or party's chances were higher than 80%, it called the outcome correctly 98% of the time.
"Prediction markets are notoriously accurate, but they're not perfect. They pull back the curtain just a little bit, but it's not 20/20 vision into the future," said John Aristotle Phillips, CEO of PredictIt.
The days leading up to Tuesday, prediction markets saw high amounts of movement, especially in the wake of FBI director James Comey's two letters to Congress regarding Clinton's email use as secretary of state. Today, however, they are anticipated to remain relatively calm until the late afternoon and evening, when exit poll results begin to get out.
Poll-based models and market-based models generally converge on Election Day, but this year is a bit different, said Rothschild.
"We're seeing markets over-perform for Hillary Clinton vis-à-vis polling models, and it's a very simple reason: they are estimating that polling error will be in her favor," he said.
Early voting figures have provided a strong indication that Clinton is likelier than Trump to outperform her polls and that her campaign's get-out-the-vote efforts have been effective. Hispanic voters appear to be coming out in high numbers, which could give Clinton an edge in states like Nevada and Florida. There has been scant evidence of the supposed shy Trump voter making a big difference.
"There's a good indication the voting population will be as good as or better for Clinton than the polling estimates," said Rothschild.
While most of those putting their money on the presidential race are going for Clinton, not everyone is.
John Mappin, a British media and technology investor who lives at Camelot Castle in Cornwall, U.K., bet on Trump early on with London-based bookmaker William Hill. If Trump comes out ahead tonight, Mappin stands to win upwards of $100,000. He already made about $13,000 when Trump became the Republican nominee.
"Mr. Mappin nailed his colors to the Trump mast in July 2015 when he was very much an outsider, and has been backing him regularly since," said William Hill spokesman Graham Sharpe in a statement.
In an interview with TheStreet earlier this year, Mappin, who is an adamant Trump supporter, called the bet "just a bit of fun."
Those looking to place a bet on Trump still can. His odds at winning this evening are pegged at about 21% on PredictIt and 17% on Betfair. PredictWise has his chances at 11%.
Goldman Sachs analysts in the U.S. Monday outlined what might be an even better Trump trade: a call on gold. Gold prices have been positively correlated with the implied odds of a Trump victory, but according to Goldman, there may be an even better way to play it:
Should Mr. Trump win the election and these correlations continue, a 1-month gold digital option would give a pay-off greater than the betting markets if the gold price rallied by c.$67/oz (or more) to c.$1,355 (or higher), vs. the spot price of c.$1,288/oz. Put differently, buying a 1-month digital call on gold with $1,355/oz strike gives a similar cost/pay-off to the U.K. betting markets if Trump wins the election and gold rallies to $1,355/oz.