What does the new administration mean for Wall Street? Jim Cramer's first reaction to the election is live on TheStreet's Facebook page Wednesday morning at 8 a.m. ET. He joins our team of reporters along with experts and analysts tracking the markets with us.
Prediction markets see Election Day resulting in a win for Hillary Clinton, and they're probably right.
As American voters head to the polls on Tuesday, prediction markets point rather decisively to a victory for Clinton over her rival Donald Trump. U.S.-based market PredictIt gives the former secretary of state 82% odds at the White House, and U.K.-based Betfair lists Clinton's chances at 83%. PredictWise, which aggregates data from PredictIt, Betfair, polling and other sources, has Clinton with 89% odds of winning.
"Clinton is in pretty good shape," said David Rothschild, Microsoft Research economist and founder of PredictWise.
While there is no such thing as a sure thing, Democrats should be heartened by prediction market signals.
Intrade, the now-defunct prediction market out of Ireland, correctly predicted the outcomes of the 2004, 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. This election cycle, PredictIt got the primaries and caucuses right 94% of the time, and when a candidate or party's chances were higher than 80%, it called the outcome correctly 98% of the time.
"Prediction markets are notoriously accurate, but they're not perfect. They pull back the curtain just a little bit, but it's not 20/20 vision into the future," said John Aristotle Phillips, CEO of PredictIt.
The days leading up to Tuesday, prediction markets saw high amounts of movement, especially in the wake of FBI director James Comey's two letters to Congress regarding Clinton's email use as secretary of state. Today, however, they are anticipated to remain relatively calm until the late afternoon and evening, when exit poll results begin to get out.