NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The U.S. presidential election takes place today, and the "base case" should be for Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton to beat Republican candidate Donald Trump, Macro Risk Advisors CEO Dean Curnutt said on BloombergTV's "Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas" on Tuesday morning.
"The electoral college is a challenging map for any Republican and certainly for Trump," he said.
With a Clinton win, the S&P 500 should rise "marginally" and the uncertainty should come out of the market, he noted. "With the VIX at 19 there's plenty of room for that to fall on a Clinton win."
Trump represents uncertainty for the markets, just like Brexit did this past June, Curnutt claimed.
Markets have not been acting with "incredible force" right now because "it's all risk premium," he said. "People have been forced to confront the possibility of a Trump presidency, a Trump win. And they've had to buy hedges. A lot of these are very short-term, front-month hedges in the VIX."
When Brexit happened, there was a decline in volatility, although there were some "tumultuous days" after, he said. If Trump wins, there would be a tumultuous day after, but then volatility would drop off as well.
"Volatility is actually said to come out of the market just based on the fact that the event has come and gone," Curnutt said.
Since Trump still has a 30% to 40% chance of winning, risk mangers "have to hedge this risk," he claimed. "You could easily argue that the potential for disruption is significant."