Amazon Sets New High as Mall Anchors Languish in Bear Market Territory

Mall anchors Nordstrom (JWN) and Macy's (M) report quarterly earnings on Thursday. J.C. Penney (JCP) reports on Friday, and Dillard's (DDS) is scheduled to report on Nov. 21.

All four are in bear market territory compared with all-time or multiyear highs set between March 2015 and March 2016. Meanwhile, Amazon (AMZN) recently slipped into correction territory after setting an all-time intraday high on Oct. 6.

Amazon reported earnings on Oct. 27. It missed analysts' earnings-per-share estimates for the quarter that ended in September. Amazon ended last week with a negative weekly chart. One reason for the Amazon loss is the company's continued growth plan, both online and in building new fulfillment centers.

Dillard's reports earnings on Nov. 21. Analysts expect the mall anchor to earn 79 cents a share. If Dillard's holds its gains through Friday, the weekly chart will shift to positive.

Macy's reports earnings before the opening bell on Nov. 10. Analysts expect this iconic retailer to earn 41 cents a share. Macy's will likely have a neutral weekly chart at the end of this week.

Nordstrom reports earnings after the closing bell on Nov. 10. Analysts expect it to earn 53 cents a share. The weekly chart will end the week negative unless there's a positive reaction to earnings.

J.C. Penney reports earnings before the opening bell on Nov. 11. Analysts expect this retail turnaround story to report a loss of 20 cents a share. The weekly chart is negative but oversold.

Here's the scorecard for the mall anchors and Amazon.

 

Here's the daily chart for Amazon.

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

Amazon closed Monday at $784.93, up 16.1% year to date. The stock is in bull market territory, 65.6% above its Feb. 9 low of $474.00.

The horizontal lines on the daily chart for Amazon are the Fibonacci retracements of the rise from the Feb. 9 low to the Oct. 6 all-time intraday high of $847.21. Looking at the upper right of the chart, the stock gapped below its 50-day simple moving average of $800.95. It closed last week below its 23.6% retracement of $768.87, but snapped back above it on Monday.

Investors looking to buy Amazon should consider doing so on weakness to $721.28, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of 2016. Investors looking to reduce holdings should consider selling strength to $837.50, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of this week.

Here's the daily chart for Dillard's.

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

Dillard's closed Monday at $61.79, down 6% year to date,. It is in bear market territory, 57.2% below its all-time intraday high of $144.21, set on April 13, 2015. The stock is 13.6% above its May 19 low of $54.37.

The daily chart shows the Fibonacci retracements of the decline from $88.58 on March 10 to the May 19 low. The 23.6% retracement of $62.45 has been a magnet since July 11. On Aug. 11, there was a short-lived spike above its 61.8% retracement of $75.50, but one day later the stock was below its 50% retracement of $71.47. The stock has been below its 38.2% retracement of $67.44 since Aug. 24. The stock closed Monday just below the 23.6% retracement of $62.45.

Investors looking to buy Dillard's should consider doing so on weakness to $47.11, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of November. Investors looking to reduce holdings should consider selling strength to $66.91, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of 2016.

Here's the daily chart for J.C. Penney.

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

J.C. Penney closed Monday at $8.30, up 24.6% year to date. It is still in bear market territory, 30.8% below its March 8 high of $11.99. The stock is also in bull market territory, 38.3% above its Jan. 20 low of $6.00.

The daily chart for J.C. Penney shows the Fibonacci retracements of the rally from the Jan. 20 low to the March 8 high. Since setting the high, stock cascaded below its 23.6% retracement of $10.57 on April 7, then the 38.2% retracement of $9.70 on April 21, the 50% retracement of $8.99 on May 5, then the 61.8% retracement of $8.29 on May 10. The roller coaster changed direction as the stock rallied from $7.10 on May 18 to $11.30 on Aug. 15, which was above the 23.6% retracement of $10.57. Since then, the swing was down again, with the stock just above the 61.8% retracement of $8.29 at Monday's close.

Investors looking to buy J.C. Penney should consider buying weakness to $8.13, which is a key technical level until the end of November. Investors looking to reduce holdings should do so on strength to $9.14, which is the 200-day simple moving average.

Here's the daily chart for Nordstrom.

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

Nordstrom closed Monday at $51.82, up 4% year to date. It is in bear market territory, 33.3% below its March 23, 2015, high of $77.65. The stock is also in bull market territory, 48% above its June 27 low of $35.01.

The daily chart for Nordstrom shows the Fibonacci retracements of the decline from the March 18 high of $59.35 to the June 27 low. From this low, the stock stair-stepped above its 23.6% retracement of $40.76 on July 11, then above its 38.2% retracement of $44.31 on Aug. 11, which also skipped the step of its 50% retracement of $47.18. The 61.8% retracement of $50.05 has been the top step since Aug. 12 -- and the stock closed above this level Monday.

Investors looking to buy Nordstrom should consider buying weakness to $45.33, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of November. Investors looking to reduce holdings should consider selling strength to $54.93 and $57.91, which are key levels on technical charts until the end of 2016.

Here's the daily chart for Macy's.

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

Macy's closed Monday at $37.77, up 8% year to date. It is in bear market territory, 48.7% below its all-time July 17, 2015, high of $73.61. The stock is also in bull market territory, 26.1% above its May 18 low of $29.94.

The daily chart for Macy's shows the Fibonacci retracements of the decline from $45.49 on March 18 to the May 18 low. The 23.6% retracement was a magnet between June 2 and Aug. 9. On Aug. 11, there was a price gap higher above the 38.2% retracement of $35.89, the 50% retracement of $37.72 and the 61.8% retracement of $39.55. The stock was back below its 61.8% retracement since Aug. 26. Since then, the 38.2% and 50% retracements have been magnets, with the stock just above the 50% retracement at Monday's close.

Investors looking to buy Macy's should consider doing so on weakness to $30.69, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of November. Investors looking to reduce holdings should consider doing so on strength to $38.76 and $43.62, which are key levels on technical charts until the end of 2016.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.

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