Shares of Home Depot (HD) have rallied in recent days on backs of a Donald Trump victory, as investors are placing bets the President-elect will be positive for the real estate and construction markets.
However shareholders will be more interested in hearing it straight from the company's mouth and whether the optimism is warranted or if the exuberance needs to be tempered a bit.
Shares of both Home Depot and its competitor Lowe's (LOW) have been bid up to the tune of nearly 7% since election day on early speculation that infrastructure and construction booms are likely to happen under President Trump. However, analysts have noted that Home Depot may be experiencing some struggles in stores open more than a year, also known as same store sales.
"Compared to Q2, our Q3 field checks softened slightly and guidance for the year would have suggested some sequential deceleration against more challenging comparisons," Jefferies analyst Daniel Binder wrote in a note to clients. "Nonetheless, we made a modest 50 bps adjustment to our Q3 comp store sales forecast to reflect what webelieve was some choppiness in bigger ticket businesses."
There's been some concern that the boom the home improvement company has experienced in recent years is slowing. Investors will be looking for any signs of that weakness when the company reports third-quarter results November 15 before the market opens.
Analysts surveyed by Yahoo! Finance expect the company to earn $1.58 a share on $23.07 billion in sales during the third quarter.
These three ETFs may benefit if investors like what Home Depot has to say about the past 90 days and the housing market in general.
VanEck Vectors Retail ETF
Home Depot makes up 7.18% of the VanEck Vectors Retail ETF (RTH) which has $107.7 million in assets under management and has a 0.35% expense ratio.
As weakness concerns crop up, Jefferies's Binder still believes that Home Depot is better positioned than its competitor in its professional and maintenance businesses.
"We believe HD is better positionedto take share in PRO and MRO businesses and appeared a bit more aggressive in appliances versus LY so we still believe it will show strong relative outperformance to LOW," Binder wrote in a note to clients. Jefferies has a buy rating and a $158 price target on Home Depot, nearly 30% higher than where shares are currently trading.
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund
The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) has Home Depot make up 6.55% of its $8.87 billion portfolio and charges investors a 0.15% expense ratio.
Oppenheimer analyst Brian Nagel believes that the softer figures recently represent nothing more than "short-term disruptions," and the weakness is showing signs of abating. However, he cut his estimates recently, but also said shares at current levels look attractive.
"We are conservatively trimming nearer-term sales and EPS forecasts for Home Depot and Lowe's and moderating the embedded multiples within our price targets for shares," Nagel wrote in a note. "Now lower valuations seem to discount for potentially softer fundamental trends near term. We recommend clients use recent share price weakness as a buying opportunity, particularly in the case of the better operated Home Depot."
Nagel has a $140 price target and a outperform rating on shares.
iShares U.S. Consumer Services ETF
The iShares U.S. Consumer Services ETF (IYC) has Home Depot make up 5.51% of its $797 million portfolio and charges investors a 0.43% expense ratio.
Goldman Sachs analyst Matthew Fassler, who has a neutral rating on shares, cautioned investors that existing home sales are now at their long-term average for the first time since the financial crisis and growth in existing home sales has slowed from the torrid pace seen in the past.
"To the extent that home sales paused in recent years, the series was still tracking below normalized levels," Fassler wrote to clients. "Today, leveling off may just be leveling off."